RB Leipzig — Hamburger SV: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.3% |
| 12 | 84.0% | |
| X2 | 26.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.1% / 42.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
RB Leipzig
12th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Werder Bremen 1:3
- 29.08.2026 home M'gladbach 3:0
- 16.05.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
- 09.05.2026 home St Pauli 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Leverkusen 1:4
Hamburger SV
17th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Mainz 0:5
- 29.08.2026 away Dortmund 0:2
- 16.05.2026 away Leverkusen 1:1
- 10.05.2026 home Freiburg 3:2
- 02.05.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:1
This season: RB Leipzig at home vs Hamburger SV away
| Metric | RB Leipzig · at home | Hamburger SV · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.96 | 0.80 |
| xG against per match | 1.09 | 1.41 |
| Shots on target per match | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 01.03.2026 Hamburger SV 1:2 RB Leipzig
- 18.10.2025 RB Leipzig 2:1 Hamburger SV
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
RB Leipzig have the clearer outlook ahead of their Bundesliga meeting with Hamburger SV. The available assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence advantage, indicating that RB Leipzig are clearly stronger in the matchup. That edge points toward a game in which the home side is more likely to control the overall outcome, although the evaluation does not suggest an entirely one-sided contest.
The scoring profile is expected to be high, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a purely defensive match less likely and leaves Hamburger SV with a plausible route to remain competitive even while starting as the weaker side. The most representative scorelines are 2:1 and 3:1, with 2:0 also among the likely outcomes. Overall, the balance favours RB Leipzig, while the attacking outlook suggests that Hamburger SV could still contribute to an open game.
What matters before kick-off
RB Leipzig's difficult week
RB Leipzig enter the match following back-to-back defeats: a 3-1 league loss to Werder Bremen followed by a 4-1 defeat against Como in the UEFA Champions League.
Hamburger SV's difficult start
Hamburger SV have lost both of their opening Bundesliga fixtures this season, falling 2-0 to Borussia Dortmund and 5-0 to FSV Mainz 05.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.