RB Leipzig — Hamburger SV: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.1% |
| 12 | 83.3% | |
| X2 | 26.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.5% / 41.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 5.00 → now 5.25 |
| W2 | was 8.00 → now 8.50 |
Match preview
RB Leipzig go into this Bundesliga meeting with a clear advantage over Hamburger SV. The assessment points to the hosts being clearly stronger, with high confidence in a home win. That gives RB Leipzig the more convincing overall outlook, although the available signals do not suggest a completely one-sided attacking contest.
The match is expected to be high-scoring, and both teams are likely to score. That combination leaves room for Hamburger SV to make an impact in attack even while remaining the less favoured side. RB Leipzig should therefore be expected to control the broader balance of the game and create the stronger winning platform, while Hamburger SV will look to stay competitive through their own scoring threat. The most consistent reading is a home victory in an open match, with scorelines such as 2:0, 2:1 or 3:0 reflecting the available assessment.
What matters before kick-off
RB Leipzig's tough stretch
RB Leipzig enter the Bundesliga fixture following back-to-back defeats, losing 3-1 to Werder Bremen in the league and 4-1 against Como in the Champions League.
RB Leipzig's home winning run
Heading into the match, RB Leipzig have won each of their last six Bundesliga home games at the Red Bull Arena.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.