SC Freiburg — Borussia Monchengladbach: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
SC Freiburg
2nd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Werder Bremen 4:1
- 16.05.2026 home RB Leipzig 4:1
- 10.05.2026 away Hamburg 2:3
- 03.05.2026 home Wolfsburg 1:1
Borussia Monchengladbach
17th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Elversberg 3:4
- 29.08.2026 away RB Leipzig 0:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hoffenheim 4:0
- 09.05.2026 away Augsburg 1:3
- 03.05.2026 home Dortmund 1:0
This season: SC Freiburg at home vs Borussia Monchengladbach away
| Metric | SC Freiburg · at home | Borussia Monchengladbach · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.94 | 1.09 |
| xG against per match | 0.48 | 3.96 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.02.2026 SC Freiburg 2:1 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 05.10.2025 Borussia Monchengladbach 0:0 SC Freiburg
- 12.04.2025 Borussia Monchengladbach 1:2 SC Freiburg
- 30.11.2024 SC Freiburg 3:1 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 30.03.2024 Borussia Monchengladbach 0:3 SC Freiburg
- 04.11.2023 SC Freiburg 3:3 Borussia Monchengladbach
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Freiburg have a slight edge over Borussia Monchengladbach in this Bundesliga meeting, although the assessment carries moderate confidence rather than pointing to a clear gap between the teams. The available signals suggest an open match, with attacking play expected to have a significant influence on the outcome.
Both SC Freiburg and Borussia Monchengladbach are likely to find the net, making the BTTS market the main indication from the available analysis. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, which reflects a contest that could remain competitive while still giving the hosts a modest advantage. The balance of the forecast therefore leans toward SC Freiburg, but Borussia Monchengladbach should have enough attacking threat to keep the match close.
What matters before kick-off
Patrick Osterhage returns to team training
SC Freiburg midfielder Patrick Osterhage returned to full team training following a muscular issue and is available for selection against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
SC Freiburg start Bundesliga campaign with back-to-back wins
SC Freiburg opened their Bundesliga season with victories over Werder Bremen (4-1) and SC Paderborn (1-0), extending their winning streak to five matches in all competitions.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's long winless streak at Freiburg
Borussia Mönchengladbach are winless in their last 18 Bundesliga away encounters against SC Freiburg.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.