SC Freiburg — Borussia Monchengladbach: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.10 |
| W2 | was 4.50 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
SC Freiburg have a slight edge over Borussia Monchengladbach in this Bundesliga meeting, although the assessment carries moderate confidence rather than pointing to a clear gap between the teams. The available signals suggest an open match, with attacking play expected to have a significant influence on the outcome.
Both SC Freiburg and Borussia Monchengladbach are likely to find the net, making the BTTS market the main indication from the available analysis. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, which reflects a contest that could remain competitive while still giving the hosts a modest advantage. The balance of the forecast therefore leans toward SC Freiburg, but Borussia Monchengladbach should have enough attacking threat to keep the match close.
What matters before kick-off
Patrick Osterhage returns to team training
SC Freiburg midfielder Patrick Osterhage returned to full team training following a muscular issue and is available for selection against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
SC Freiburg start Bundesliga campaign with back-to-back wins
SC Freiburg opened their Bundesliga season with victories over Werder Bremen (4-1) and SC Paderborn (1-0), extending their winning streak to five matches in all competitions.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's long winless streak at Freiburg
Borussia Mönchengladbach are winless in their last 18 Bundesliga away encounters against SC Freiburg.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.