FC Augsburg — Bayer Leverkusen: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.2% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 4.00 → now 3.50 |
| W2 | was 1.80 → now 1.90 |
Match preview
FC Augsburg face Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga match that points toward an open and competitive contest. The outlook gives Bayer Leverkusen a slight edge, with the away side more likely to avoid defeat. That is a high-confidence assessment, although the margin between the teams is not expected to be decisive.
The scoring outlook suggests a high-scoring game, and both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen are likely to find the net. This makes a cautious, low-event match less likely, with the balance instead leaning toward an exchange of attacking moments. FC Augsburg should have opportunities at home, but Bayer Leverkusen appear better placed to take control of key phases and come away with the stronger result. A draw remains a credible outcome, particularly if both sides convert their chances, while a narrow Bayer Leverkusen win also fits the overall picture.
What matters before kick-off
Augsburg's historic top spot
FC Augsburg ended a Bundesliga matchday at the top of the table for the first time in their history after winning their opening two matches against Schalke (3-0) and Eintracht Frankfurt (4-1).
Recent official results
In the previous matchday of the Bundesliga, FC Augsburg secured a 4-1 away win over Eintracht Frankfurt, while Bayer Leverkusen defeated Union Berlin 4-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.