FC Augsburg — Bayer Leverkusen: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.2% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
FC Augsburg
1st place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 4:1
- 30.08.2026 home Schalke 04 3:0
- 16.05.2026 away Union Berlin 0:4
- 09.05.2026 home M'gladbach 3:1
- 02.05.2026 away Werder Bremen 3:1
Bayer Leverkusen
8th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Union Berlin 4:0
- 29.08.2026 away Elversberg 2:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Stuttgart 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home RB Leipzig 4:1
This season: FC Augsburg at home vs Bayer Leverkusen away
| Metric | FC Augsburg · at home | Bayer Leverkusen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.52 | 1.88 |
| xG against per match | 1.54 | 1.27 |
| Shots on target per match | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.04.2026 Bayer Leverkusen 1:2 FC Augsburg
- 06.12.2025 FC Augsburg 2:0 Bayer Leverkusen
- 26.04.2025 Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 FC Augsburg
- 14.12.2024 FC Augsburg 0:2 Bayer Leverkusen
- 18.05.2024 Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 FC Augsburg
- 13.01.2024 FC Augsburg 0:1 Bayer Leverkusen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Augsburg face Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga match that points toward an open and competitive contest. The outlook gives Bayer Leverkusen a slight edge, with the away side more likely to avoid defeat. That is a high-confidence assessment, although the margin between the teams is not expected to be decisive.
The scoring outlook suggests a high-scoring game, and both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen are likely to find the net. This makes a cautious, low-event match less likely, with the balance instead leaning toward an exchange of attacking moments. FC Augsburg should have opportunities at home, but Bayer Leverkusen appear better placed to take control of key phases and come away with the stronger result. A draw remains a credible outcome, particularly if both sides convert their chances, while a narrow Bayer Leverkusen win also fits the overall picture.
What matters before kick-off
Augsburg's historic top spot
FC Augsburg ended a Bundesliga matchday at the top of the table for the first time in their history after winning their opening two matches against Schalke (3-0) and Eintracht Frankfurt (4-1).
Recent official results
In the previous matchday of the Bundesliga, FC Augsburg secured a 4-1 away win over Eintracht Frankfurt, while Bayer Leverkusen defeated Union Berlin 4-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.