TSG Hoffenheim — VfB Stuttgart: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.2% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.1% / 62.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
TSG Hoffenheim
16th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Dortmund 2:3
- 29.08.2026 away FC Koln 2:3
- 16.05.2026 away M'gladbach 0:4
- 09.05.2026 home Werder Bremen 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Stuttgart 3:3
VfB Stuttgart
10th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 home FC Koln 4:1
- 28.08.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
- 16.05.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
- 09.05.2026 home Leverkusen 3:1
- 02.05.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:3
This season: TSG Hoffenheim at home vs VfB Stuttgart away
| Metric | TSG Hoffenheim · at home | VfB Stuttgart · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.75 | 0.78 |
| xG against per match | 2.04 | 4.06 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.05.2026 TSG Hoffenheim 3:3 VfB Stuttgart
- 20.12.2025 VfB Stuttgart 0:0 TSG Hoffenheim
- 23.02.2025 TSG Hoffenheim 1:1 VfB Stuttgart
- 06.10.2024 VfB Stuttgart 1:1 TSG Hoffenheim
- 16.03.2024 TSG Hoffenheim 0:3 VfB Stuttgart
- 28.10.2023 VfB Stuttgart 2:3 TSG Hoffenheim
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
TSG Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart meet in a Bundesliga contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, pointing instead to a competitive game in which the balance could shift during different phases. With the teams closely rated, the central question is likely to be which defence can handle the pressure more consistently.
The outlook also suggests an open, high-scoring encounter, with both teams likely to find the net. That points toward a match shaped by attacking ambition rather than extended caution, although the even overall assessment makes it difficult to separate the sides. Scorelines such as 1:1 and 2:2 fit the underlying profile, while a narrow 2:1 result for either side would also be consistent with a game decided by small margins.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek Champions League win for Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart enter the Bundesliga fixture following a 3-1 midweek victory over Norwegian club Viking FK in the UEFA Champions League.
Hoffenheim's difficult league start
TSG Hoffenheim started the current Bundesliga season with back-to-back 3-2 defeats against FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.