TSG Hoffenheim — VfB Stuttgart: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.2% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.1% / 62.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.35 → now 2.20 |
| W2 | was 2.63 → now 2.80 |
Match preview
TSG Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart meet in a Bundesliga contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, pointing instead to a competitive game in which the balance could shift during different phases. With the teams closely rated, the central question is likely to be which defence can handle the pressure more consistently.
The outlook also suggests an open, high-scoring encounter, with both teams likely to find the net. That points toward a match shaped by attacking ambition rather than extended caution, although the even overall assessment makes it difficult to separate the sides. Scorelines such as 1:1 and 2:2 fit the underlying profile, while a narrow 2:1 result for either side would also be consistent with a game decided by small margins.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek Champions League win for Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart enter the Bundesliga fixture following a 3-1 midweek victory over Norwegian club Viking FK in the UEFA Champions League.
Hoffenheim's difficult league start
TSG Hoffenheim started the current Bundesliga season with back-to-back 3-2 defeats against FC Köln and Borussia Dortmund.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.