FSV Mainz — Eintracht Frankfurt: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.0% |
| 12 | 78.2% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.3% / 30.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.0% / 52.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
FSV Mainz
5th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Hamburg 5:0
- 29.08.2026 home Paderborn 0:0
- 16.05.2026 away Heidenheim 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Union Berlin 1:3
- 03.05.2026 away St Pauli 2:1
Eintracht Frankfurt
14th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Augsburg 1:4
- 29.08.2026 away Union Berlin 3:3
- 16.05.2026 home Stuttgart 2:2
- 08.05.2026 away Dortmund 2:3
- 02.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:2
This season: FSV Mainz at home vs Eintracht Frankfurt away
| Metric | FSV Mainz · at home | Eintracht Frankfurt · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.23 | 1.46 |
| xG against per match | 0.73 | 1.84 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 FSV Mainz 2:1 Eintracht Frankfurt
- 09.11.2025 Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0 FSV Mainz
- 04.05.2025 FSV Mainz 1:1 Eintracht Frankfurt
- 21.12.2024 Eintracht Frankfurt 1:3 FSV Mainz
- 26.01.2024 Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0 FSV Mainz
- 27.08.2023 FSV Mainz 1:1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FSV Mainz meet Eintracht Frankfurt in a Bundesliga fixture where the hosts hold a clear but measured advantage. The qualitative assessment points towards a high-scoring contest, with FSV Mainz slightly better placed overall. That edge supports a result protecting the home side, although the balance is not strong enough to dismiss Eintracht Frankfurt’s chances of taking something from the match.
Both teams are expected to find the net, which makes an open and competitive game more likely than a tightly controlled defensive encounter. FSV Mainz may have enough influence at home to turn that attacking rhythm into a narrow victory, while Eintracht Frankfurt remain a credible threat if they can make the most of their opportunities. The central expectation is therefore a close match with goals at both ends, and the home side marginally favoured in the final outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Recent team results
In matchday 2 of the Bundesliga season, Mainz 05 secured a commanding 5-0 away victory against Hamburger SV, while Eintracht Frankfurt suffered a 4-1 home defeat against FC Augsburg.
Pre-match comments from Eintracht head coach
Eintracht Frankfurt head coach Adi Hütter emphasized ahead of the trip to Mainz that his squad is still navigating a development process after conceding seven goals across their opening two league fixtures.
Distance covered statistics
In the opening weeks of the Bundesliga season, Eintracht Frankfurt lead the league in average distance covered at 123.6 km per game, whereas Mainz 05 rank lowest in the category at 112.3 km per game.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.