Borussia Dortmund — SC Paderborn 07: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.6% |
| 12 | 86.7% | |
| X2 | 22.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.9% / 2.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.9% / 27.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Borussia Dortmund
3rd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Hamburg 2:0
- 16.05.2026 away Werder Bremen 2:0
- 08.05.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 3:2
- 03.05.2026 away M'gladbach 0:1
SC Paderborn 07
13th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Freiburg 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Mainz 0:0
- 17.05.2026 away Darmstadt 2:0
- 08.05.2026 home Karlsruhe 2:2
- 03.05.2026 away Elversberg 1:5
This season: Borussia Dortmund at home vs SC Paderborn 07 away
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund · at home | SC Paderborn 07 · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.41 | 0.73 |
| xG against per match | 0.80 | 1.23 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 31.05.2020 SC Paderborn 07 1:6 Borussia Dortmund
- 22.11.2019 Borussia Dortmund 3:3 SC Paderborn 07
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund enter this Bundesliga meeting with a clear qualitative advantage over SC Paderborn 07. The available assessment rates the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence, making Borussia Dortmund the more convincing side on the pre-match indicators. Their expected approach should be proactive, particularly given the high-scoring profile attached to the fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 still have a route into the game if they can withstand the early pressure and make effective use of their opportunities. The assessment of both teams scoring is balanced, so it is difficult to separate the likelihood of SC Paderborn 07 finding the net from the possibility of Borussia Dortmund keeping control without conceding. The most plausible scorelines listed are 2:0, 3:0 and 2:1, all pointing toward a home victory while allowing for different levels of resistance from the visitors.
What matters before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund's league start
Borussia Dortmund won their first two Bundesliga matches of the season against HSV (2-0) and TSG Hoffenheim (3-2), collecting six points heading into matchday 3 against SC Paderborn 07.
SC Paderborn 07's opening results
Promoted SC Paderborn 07 earned one point from their opening two Bundesliga fixtures, drawing 0-0 with Mainz before suffering a 0-1 defeat against Freiburg.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.