Borussia Dortmund — SC Paderborn 07: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.6% |
| 12 | 86.7% | |
| X2 | 22.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.9% / 2.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.9% / 27.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.22 → now 1.27 |
| X | was 7.00 → now 6.50 |
| W2 | was 11.00 → now 9.00 |
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund enter this Bundesliga meeting with a clear qualitative advantage over SC Paderborn 07. The available assessment rates the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence, making Borussia Dortmund the more convincing side on the pre-match indicators. Their expected approach should be proactive, particularly given the high-scoring profile attached to the fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 still have a route into the game if they can withstand the early pressure and make effective use of their opportunities. The assessment of both teams scoring is balanced, so it is difficult to separate the likelihood of SC Paderborn 07 finding the net from the possibility of Borussia Dortmund keeping control without conceding. The most plausible scorelines listed are 2:0, 3:0 and 2:1, all pointing toward a home victory while allowing for different levels of resistance from the visitors.
What matters before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund's league start
Borussia Dortmund won their first two Bundesliga matches of the season against HSV (2-0) and TSG Hoffenheim (3-2), collecting six points heading into matchday 3 against SC Paderborn 07.
SC Paderborn 07's opening results
Promoted SC Paderborn 07 earned one point from their opening two Bundesliga fixtures, drawing 0-0 with Mainz before suffering a 0-1 defeat against Freiburg.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.