SV 07 Elversberg — Bayern Munich: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 13.9% |
| 12 | 91.6% | |
| X2 | 94.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 99.2% / 0.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 68.4% / 31.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 32.4% / 67.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SV 07 Elversberg face Bayern Munich in a Bundesliga meeting where the visitors hold a clear advantage. The qualitative assessment points to Bayern Munich as the stronger side, with high confidence in an away success. That edge suggests Bayern Munich should control much of the match through their overall quality, while SV 07 Elversberg may need to stay compact and make the most of limited attacking opportunities.
The game is also projected to be high-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That points to an open contest rather than a completely one-sided defensive performance, especially if SV 07 Elversberg can take advantage of transitions or moments when Bayern Munich commit players forward. The most prominent scoreline indications are 0:3, 1:3 and 0:4, all of which reflect Bayern Munich’s attacking superiority while leaving room for different levels of resistance from SV 07 Elversberg.
What matters before kick-off
First competitive meeting between the teams
Bundesliga debutants SV Elversberg host Bayern Munich for the first time in an official competitive fixture.
Elversberg head coach cleared to touchline
SV Elversberg head coach Vincent Wagner has been cleared to be on the bench against Bayern Munich after a referee admitted to making an error in sending him off during their previous match.
Recent results for Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich head into the fixture following a 5-0 victory over FK Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League and a 0-0 draw against Schalke 04 in Bundesliga Matchday 2.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.