Udinese Calcio — Lazio Rome: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.0% |
| 12 | 69.4% | |
| X2 | 64.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.8% / 27.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.0% / 76.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.1% / 95.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Udinese Calcio and Lazio Rome appear evenly matched ahead of their Serie A meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, so the game may be shaped by small details rather than a sustained difference in quality. A balanced contest is the central expectation, with a draw a credible outcome and only a slight lean toward protecting the home result.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a match that could produce chances without necessarily becoming open from the start. Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, which leaves room for either a measured exchange of opportunities or a more cautious contest. Udinese Calcio may look to use home advantage, while Lazio Rome will seek enough control to avoid being drawn into an overly transitional game. Overall, the moderate confidence reflects a close fixture in which neither team stands out clearly.
What matters before kick-off
Udinese enter match following Coppa Italia advancement
Udinese remain unbeaten at the start of the 2026-27 campaign. After opening Serie A with a 1-1 draw against Como and a 3-2 victory over Monza, the Friulians secured a 2-1 midweek win over Venezia to advance in the Coppa Italia.
Lazio start Serie A campaign with consecutive clean sheets
Lazio began their league campaign with back-to-back 1-0 victories over Bologna and Genoa. The Biancocelesti are one of only three Serie A teams alongside Juventus and Roma to keep clean sheets in both of their opening two matches.
Recent history of draws between Udinese and Lazio
Each of the last three Serie A encounters between Udinese and Lazio ended in a draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.