AS Roma — Atalanta BC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.7% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 41.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.7% / 63.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
AS Roma
2nd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 away Lecce 4:0
- 24.08.2026 home Fiorentina 4:0
- 24.05.2026 away Verona 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Lazio 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Parma 3:2
Atalanta BC
6th place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 23.08.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
- 22.05.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Bologna 0:1
- 10.05.2026 away Milan 3:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.04.2026 AS Roma 1:1 Atalanta BC
- 03.01.2026 Atalanta BC 1:0 AS Roma
- 12.05.2025 Atalanta BC 2:1 AS Roma
- 02.12.2024 AS Roma 0:2 Atalanta BC
- 12.05.2024 Atalanta BC 2:1 AS Roma
- 07.01.2024 AS Roma 1:1 Atalanta BC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AS Roma have a slight edge over Atalanta BC, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a decisive home advantage. The available outlook indicates a medium-scoring match, with AS Roma marginally better positioned in the result market. That assessment still leaves considerable room for a draw, particularly given the uncertainty around the expected balance between the two sides.
The scoring picture is also finely poised: both teams scoring is described as a coin flip. The main scorelines reflect that uncertainty, ranging from a 1:1 draw to narrow AS Roma wins such as 2:1 or 2:0. Overall, the most reasonable interpretation is a competitive Serie A fixture in which AS Roma hold the clearer side of a small advantage, while Atalanta BC remain fully capable of keeping the match level or making the result difficult to separate.
What matters before kick-off
Over 65,000 fans expected at the Olimpico
AS Roma announced that more than 65,000 spectators are expected at the Stadio Olimpico for their Serie A match against Atalanta BC.
AS Roma's early-season form
AS Roma opened their Serie A campaign with back-to-back 4-0 victories against Fiorentina and Lecce.
Atalanta BC's start to the campaign
Atalanta BC entered the matchday having won their first two Serie A fixtures, defeating Sassuolo 2-1 and Bologna 1-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.