AS Roma — Atalanta BC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.7% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 41.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.7% / 63.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
AS Roma have a slight edge over Atalanta BC, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a decisive home advantage. The available outlook indicates a medium-scoring match, with AS Roma marginally better positioned in the result market. That assessment still leaves considerable room for a draw, particularly given the uncertainty around the expected balance between the two sides.
The scoring picture is also finely poised: both teams scoring is described as a coin flip. The main scorelines reflect that uncertainty, ranging from a 1:1 draw to narrow AS Roma wins such as 2:1 or 2:0. Overall, the most reasonable interpretation is a competitive Serie A fixture in which AS Roma hold the clearer side of a small advantage, while Atalanta BC remain fully capable of keeping the match level or making the result difficult to separate.
What matters before kick-off
Over 65,000 fans expected at the Olimpico
AS Roma announced that more than 65,000 spectators are expected at the Stadio Olimpico for their Serie A match against Atalanta BC.
AS Roma's early-season form
AS Roma opened their Serie A campaign with back-to-back 4-0 victories against Fiorentina and Lecce.
Atalanta BC's start to the campaign
Atalanta BC entered the matchday having won their first two Serie A fixtures, defeating Sassuolo 2-1 and Bologna 1-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.