Bologna FC — Sassuolo Calcio: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.7% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.0% / 21.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Bologna FC enter this Serie A meeting with a slight but meaningful edge over Sassuolo Calcio. The assessment points toward a medium-scoring contest, suggesting neither side is expected to dominate the match completely. Bologna FC should have the stronger platform overall, particularly in a game where maintaining control and limiting transitions could be important.
The attacking outlook remains balanced. Both teams scoring is considered difficult to separate, so the match could develop in more than one direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. Bologna FC have the clearer result advantage, but the profile also leaves room for Sassuolo Calcio to stay competitive and take something from the contest. Overall, the outlook favours Bologna FC, while a draw remains a credible alternative in what should be a relatively even encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Early season form
Bologna started their Serie A campaign with consecutive 1-0 defeats to Lazio and Atalanta. Sassuolo bounced back from an opening 2-1 loss against Atalanta by beating Torino 2-1 in the league and progressing past Frosinone on penalties in the Coppa Italia.
Head-to-head record
Bologna are unbeaten in their last six Serie A encounters against Sassuolo, recording three wins and three draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.