Juventus Turin — AC Milan: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 69.6% | |
| X2 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.1% / 9.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.6% / 74.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Juventus Turin
5th place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Parma 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Frosinone 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Torino 2:2
- 17.05.2026 home Fiorentina 0:2
- 09.05.2026 away Lecce 1:0
AC Milan
4th place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 home Venezia 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Torino 2:1
- 24.05.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Genoa 2:1
- 10.05.2026 home Atalanta 2:3
This season: Juventus Turin at home vs AC Milan away
| Metric | Juventus Turin · at home | AC Milan · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.69 | 2.15 |
| xG against per match | 0.22 | 1.29 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.04.2026 AC Milan 0:0 Juventus Turin
- 05.10.2025 Juventus Turin 0:0 AC Milan
- 18.01.2025 Juventus Turin 2:0 AC Milan
- 23.11.2024 AC Milan 0:0 Juventus Turin
- 27.04.2024 Juventus Turin 0:0 AC Milan
- 22.10.2023 AC Milan 0:1 Juventus Turin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Juventus Turin have a slight edge over AC Milan in this Serie A meeting, with the assessment carrying a high level of confidence. That advantage is limited rather than dominant, so the match profile points toward a competitive contest in which AC Milan remain capable of avoiding defeat. The suggested 1X signal reflects that balance, favouring Juventus Turin while also allowing for a draw.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring, although the likely scorelines include both open and highly cautious outcomes. A 1:1 draw is among the leading possibilities, while 1:0 would fit the modest home advantage. The inclusion of 0:0 underlines the possibility of a controlled match with limited clear chances. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, making that aspect effectively even. Overall, Juventus Turin hold the narrower side of the argument, but AC Milan keep the result finely poised.
What matters before kick-off
Juventus injury concerns
Juventus head coach Luciano Spalletti confirmed ahead of the match that the team is missing seven players due to injury.
Perfect league start for both teams
Both Juventus and AC Milan head into their Matchday 3 fixture in the 2026/27 Serie A season having won both of their opening league games.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.