Parma Calcio — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.7% |
| 12 | 68.7% | |
| X2 | 65.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Parma Calcio
16th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 22.08.2026 home Cagliari 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Sassuolo 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Como 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home Roma 2:3
AC Monza
17th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Udinese 2:3
- 22.08.2026 away Inter 1:4
- 08.05.2026 home Empoli 2:2
- 01.05.2026 away Mantova 2:3
- 24.04.2026 home Modena 1:0
This season: Parma Calcio at home vs AC Monza away
| Metric | Parma Calcio · at home | AC Monza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.75 | 1.23 |
| xG against per match | 0.94 | 1.05 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 15.03.2025 AC Monza 1:1 Parma Calcio
- 28.12.2024 Parma Calcio 2:1 AC Monza
- 02.03.2022 AC Monza 1:1 Parma Calcio
- 17.10.2021 Parma Calcio 0:0 AC Monza
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Parma Calcio and AC Monza look evenly matched ahead of their Serie A meeting. With moderate confidence, the available assessment points to a contest in which neither side holds a clear advantage. The 1X signal market indicates some protection for the hosts, but the overall balance remains close rather than strongly tilted in one direction.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, although the possibility of both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced. A draw appears among the plausible scenarios, with 1:1 and 0:0 listed alongside a narrow 1:2 away win. That range reflects a game where small details may determine the outcome, while the underlying expectation remains one of competitive and measured football from both Parma Calcio and AC Monza.
What matters before kick-off
Coppa Italia Midweek Results
Parma exited the Coppa Italia following a 2-0 home defeat to Cremonese, whereas Monza advanced after securing a 1-0 away victory against Torino.
Head-to-Head Record
Parma are unbeaten in their last eight league encounters against Monza, recording two victories and six draws.
Team News and Injuries
Parma midfielder Adrián Bernabé missed the recent cup tie due to an injury, while Monza captain Matteo Pessina remains sidelined following knee surgery.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.