Parma Calcio — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.7% |
| 12 | 68.7% | |
| X2 | 65.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Parma Calcio and AC Monza look evenly matched ahead of their Serie A meeting. With moderate confidence, the available assessment points to a contest in which neither side holds a clear advantage. The 1X signal market indicates some protection for the hosts, but the overall balance remains close rather than strongly tilted in one direction.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, although the possibility of both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced. A draw appears among the plausible scenarios, with 1:1 and 0:0 listed alongside a narrow 1:2 away win. That range reflects a game where small details may determine the outcome, while the underlying expectation remains one of competitive and measured football from both Parma Calcio and AC Monza.
What matters before kick-off
Coppa Italia Midweek Results
Parma exited the Coppa Italia following a 2-0 home defeat to Cremonese, whereas Monza advanced after securing a 1-0 away victory against Torino.
Head-to-Head Record
Parma are unbeaten in their last eight league encounters against Monza, recording two victories and six draws.
Team News and Injuries
Parma midfielder Adrián Bernabé missed the recent cup tie due to an injury, while Monza captain Matteo Pessina remains sidelined following knee surgery.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.