Inter Milano — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 41.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Inter Milano hold a slight edge over SSC Napoli in this Serie A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a competitive and uncertain contest rather than a clear advantage. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger position, but the gap between the teams is not substantial enough to support a firm expectation of victory.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered an even possibility. That leaves several plausible paths: a balanced 1:1 draw, a narrow 1:0 win for Inter Milano, or a more controlled 2:0 home result. SSC Napoli remain capable of keeping the game close, particularly if they limit the hosts' chances, while Inter Milano's edge is reflected mainly in the range of outcomes favouring them rather than in a decisive forecast.
What matters before kick-off
Early Season Serie A Results
Inter Milano started the new Serie A campaign with back-to-back wins over Monza (4-1) and Cagliari (1-0). SSC Napoli opened their season with a 2-0 win against Genoa before losing 2-1 at home to Como.
Head-to-Head Serie A History
Inter Milano and SSC Napoli have faced each other 160 times in Serie A, with Inter winning 70 matches, Napoli winning 48, and 42 games ending in a draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.