Inter Milano — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 41.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Inter Milano
3rd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Cagliari 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Monza 4:1
- 23.05.2026 away Bologna 3:3
- 17.05.2026 home Verona 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Lazio 3:0
SSC Napoli
10th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Como 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Genoa 2:0
- 24.05.2026 home Udinese 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Pisa 3:0
- 11.05.2026 home Bologna 2:3
This season: Inter Milano at home vs SSC Napoli away
| Metric | Inter Milano · at home | SSC Napoli · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.05 | 0.77 |
| xG against per match | 1.23 | 0.67 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.01.2026 Inter Milano 2:2 SSC Napoli
- 25.10.2025 SSC Napoli 3:1 Inter Milano
- 01.03.2025 SSC Napoli 1:1 Inter Milano
- 10.11.2024 Inter Milano 1:1 SSC Napoli
- 17.03.2024 Inter Milano 1:1 SSC Napoli
- 03.12.2023 SSC Napoli 0:3 Inter Milano
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Inter Milano hold a slight edge over SSC Napoli in this Serie A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a competitive and uncertain contest rather than a clear advantage. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger position, but the gap between the teams is not substantial enough to support a firm expectation of victory.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered an even possibility. That leaves several plausible paths: a balanced 1:1 draw, a narrow 1:0 win for Inter Milano, or a more controlled 2:0 home result. SSC Napoli remain capable of keeping the game close, particularly if they limit the hosts' chances, while Inter Milano's edge is reflected mainly in the range of outcomes favouring them rather than in a decisive forecast.
What matters before kick-off
Early Season Serie A Results
Inter Milano started the new Serie A campaign with back-to-back wins over Monza (4-1) and Cagliari (1-0). SSC Napoli opened their season with a 2-0 win against Genoa before losing 2-1 at home to Como.
Head-to-Head Serie A History
Inter Milano and SSC Napoli have faced each other 160 times in Serie A, with Inter winning 70 matches, Napoli winning 48, and 42 games ending in a draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.