Cagliari Calcio — US Lecce: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.2% |
| 12 | 70.1% | |
| X2 | 54.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.9% / 55.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.5% / 33.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.7% / 97.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.09.2026
Cagliari Calcio
12th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Inter 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away Parma 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Milan 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home Torino 2:1
- 09.05.2026 home Udinese 0:2
US Lecce
14th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 home Roma 0:4
- 23.08.2026 away Venezia 2:0
- 24.05.2026 home Genoa 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Sassuolo 3:2
- 09.05.2026 home Juventus 0:1
This season: Cagliari Calcio at home vs US Lecce away
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio · at home | US Lecce · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.45 | 2.70 |
| xG against per match | 3.91 | 2.05 |
| Shots on target per match | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.02.2026 Cagliari Calcio 0:2 US Lecce
- 19.09.2025 US Lecce 1:2 Cagliari Calcio
- 19.01.2025 Cagliari Calcio 4:1 US Lecce
- 31.08.2024 US Lecce 1:0 Cagliari Calcio
- 05.05.2024 Cagliari Calcio 1:1 US Lecce
- 06.01.2024 US Lecce 1:1 Cagliari Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Cagliari Calcio meet US Lecce in Serie A with the available assessment pointing to a slight home advantage. The high-confidence signal supports the hosts as the stronger side in this matchup, although the margin between the teams is not presented as decisive. The main market indication is 1X, favouring Cagliari Calcio to avoid defeat.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring rather than an especially open contest. Whether both teams score is considered evenly balanced, so there is no clear expectation on that aspect. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, reflecting a match that could remain close and potentially be settled by small details.
What matters before kick-off
Early season form
Heading into their matchday three Serie A fixture, both teams held identical records: Cagliari defeated Parma 1-0 before falling 0-1 to Inter Milan, while Lecce beat Venezia 2-0 before losing 0-4 to AS Roma.
Lecce squad selection
Lecce head coach Eusebio Di Francesco named a 26-man squad for the away fixture against Cagliari, including goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone and forward Nikola Stulic.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.