Cagliari Calcio — US Lecce: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.2% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.4% / 25.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.6% / 74.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Cagliari Calcio meet US Lecce in Serie A with the available assessment pointing to a slight home advantage. The high-confidence signal supports the hosts as the stronger side in this matchup, although the margin between the teams is not presented as decisive. The main market indication is 1X, favouring Cagliari Calcio to avoid defeat.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring rather than an especially open contest. Whether both teams score is considered evenly balanced, so there is no clear expectation on that aspect. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, reflecting a match that could remain close and potentially be settled by small details.
What matters before kick-off
Early season form
Heading into their matchday three Serie A fixture, both teams held identical records: Cagliari defeated Parma 1-0 before falling 0-1 to Inter Milan, while Lecce beat Venezia 2-0 before losing 0-4 to AS Roma.
Lecce squad selection
Lecce head coach Eusebio Di Francesco named a 26-man squad for the away fixture against Cagliari, including goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone and forward Nikola Stulic.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.