Udinese Calcio — Cagliari Calcio: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.3% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.0% / 25.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Udinese Calcio
13th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.09.2026 away Inter 3:5
- 07.09.2026 home Lazio 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Monza 3:2
- 22.08.2026 home Como 1:1
- 24.05.2026 away Napoli 0:1
Cagliari Calcio
5th place · 9 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Atalanta 2:1
- 07.09.2026 home Lecce 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Inter 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away Parma 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Milan 2:1
This season: Udinese Calcio at home vs Cagliari Calcio away
| Metric | Udinese Calcio · at home | Cagliari Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.46 | 1.13 |
| xG against per match | 1.70 | 1.03 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.05.2026 Cagliari Calcio 0:2 Udinese Calcio
- 05.10.2025 Udinese Calcio 1:1 Cagliari Calcio
- 03.05.2025 Cagliari Calcio 1:2 Udinese Calcio
- 25.10.2024 Udinese Calcio 2:0 Cagliari Calcio
- 18.02.2024 Udinese Calcio 1:1 Cagliari Calcio
- 17.09.2023 Cagliari Calcio 0:0 Udinese Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Udinese Calcio hold a slight edge over Cagliari Calcio in this Serie A meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a closely balanced contest rather than a decisive advantage. The available assessment points toward a medium-scoring match, with the home side marginally better placed to control the game. That edge may come through territorial pressure and the ability to turn limited opportunities into a narrow result, but the overall outlook remains cautious.
Cagliari Calcio still have a credible route to a positive outcome, particularly if they keep the match compact and limit Udinese Calcio’s space in the final third. Both teams scoring is viewed as evenly balanced, which underlines the uncertainty around the attacking exchanges. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 0-0, suggesting that a draw or a narrow home win are the main scenarios. The 1X signal supports avoiding a strong prediction in favour of either an Udinese Calcio victory or a draw.
What matters before kick-off
Udinese's Recent Result
Udinese suffered a 5-3 defeat against Inter Milan at San Siro in their previous Serie A fixture. They entered the matchday with four points from four league games.
Cagliari's Strong Start
Cagliari secured a 2-1 away victory over Atalanta last time out with goals from Paul Mendy and Daniel Maldini. They came into this fixture fifth in Serie A with nine points from four matches.
Head-to-Head Record
Udinese remained undefeated in 13 of their last 14 Serie A encounters with Cagliari, recording 9 wins and 4 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.