Match intelligence

Frosinone Calcio — Como 1907: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026

League: Serie A (Italy) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

× Prediction missed
Frosinone Calcio2
:
0Como 1907
Locked signal W2 Probability 65.0% Verdict Miss
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 14.9% Home win Frosinone Calcio
X 20.2% Draw
W2 65.0% Away win Como 1907
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X285.4%
Both teams to score
Yes62.9%
Totals 2.5
Over69.6%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X34.4%
1280.2%
X285.4%
Both teams to scoreYes/No62.9% / 37.1%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 96.2% / 3.8%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 88.4% / 11.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 69.6% / 30.4%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 48.3% / 51.7%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 29.2% / 70.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 15.5% / 84.5%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Frosinone Calcio × Como 1907
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 3.8%
0:1 5.7%
0:2 8.4%
0:3 6.9%
0:4 4.2%
0:5 2.1%
1
1:0 2.0%
1:1 8.7%
1:2 9.4%
1:3 7.7%
1:4 4.8%
1:5 2.4%
2
2:0 1.7%
2:1 4.3%
2:2 5.3%
2:3 4.4%
2:4 2.7%
2:5 1.3%
3
3:0 0.7%
3:1 1.6%
3:2 2.0%
3:3 1.6%
3:4 1.0%
3:5 0.5%
4
4:0 0.2%
4:1 0.5%
4:2 0.6%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.4%
1:18.7%
0:28.4%
1:37.7%
0:36.9%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026

Frosinone Calcio

7th place · 7 pts after 4

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 12.09.2026 away Genoa 1:1
  • 06.09.2026 home Venezia 3:2
  • 29.08.2026 away Fiorentina 3:0
  • 23.08.2026 home Juventus 0:1
  • 08.05.2026 home Mantova 5:0

Como 1907

5th place · 10 pts after 4

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 14.09.2026 home Parma 2:1
  • 04.09.2026 away Genoa 4:1
  • 30.08.2026 away Napoli 2:1
  • 22.08.2026 away Udinese 1:1
  • 24.05.2026 away Cremonese 4:1

This season: Frosinone Calcio at home vs Como 1907 away

Metric Frosinone Calcio · at home Como 1907 · away
Matches23
W–D–L1–0–12–1–0
Goals scored per match1.502.33
Goals conceded per match1.501.00
xG for per match1.161.44
xG against per match2.181.43
Shots on target per match5.007.00
Corners per match4.007.00
Over 2.5 goals50%67%
Both teams scored50%100%

Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings

Frosinone Calcio wins3
Draws0
Como 1907 wins1
Goals per match2.25
Both teams scored1/4
Over 2.5 goals1/4
  • 04.02.2023 Como 1907 0:2 Frosinone Calcio
  • 03.09.2022 Frosinone Calcio 2:0 Como 1907
  • 16.02.2022 Frosinone Calcio 1:2 Como 1907
  • 17.09.2021 Como 1907 0:2 Frosinone Calcio

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Frosinone Calcio host Como 1907 in Serie A, with the available assessment giving the visitors the clearer edge. The confidence is moderate rather than absolute, so the matchup should still be approached with some caution. Como 1907 appear better placed to control the overall result, while Frosinone Calcio remain capable of making the contest competitive on their own ground.

The scoring outlook points towards an open game, with a relatively high number of goals expected and both teams likely to find the net. That combination makes a narrow away win particularly plausible, although a draw remains a realistic alternative. The suggested scorelines of 1:2, 1:1 and 0:2 reflect that balance: Como 1907 have the stronger result signal, but Frosinone Calcio may still create enough opportunities to contribute to the score.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Serie A Matchday 5 fixture in Frosinone

Frosinone Calcio host Como 1907 at the Stadio Benito Stirpe on September 20, 2026, for Matchday 5 of Serie A.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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