Parma Calcio — Genoa CFC: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.9% |
| 12 | 67.4% | |
| X2 | 70.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.4% / 59.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.1% / 79.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.4% / 91.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.0% / 97.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
Parma Calcio
18th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.09.2026 away Como 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Monza 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 22.08.2026 home Cagliari 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Sassuolo 1:0
Genoa CFC
19th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Frosinone 1:1
- 04.09.2026 home Como 1:4
- 30.08.2026 away Lazio 0:1
- 22.08.2026 home Napoli 0:2
- 24.05.2026 away Lecce 0:1
This season: Parma Calcio at home vs Genoa CFC away
| Metric | Parma Calcio · at home | Genoa CFC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| xG against per match | 1.33 | 1.55 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.01.2026 Parma Calcio 0:0 Genoa CFC
- 19.10.2025 Genoa CFC 0:0 Parma Calcio
- 12.01.2025 Genoa CFC 1:0 Parma Calcio
- 04.11.2024 Parma Calcio 0:1 Genoa CFC
- 05.02.2023 Parma Calcio 2:0 Genoa CFC
- 03.09.2022 Genoa CFC 3:3 Parma Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Parma Calcio face Genoa CFC in a Serie A meeting that looks evenly matched on the available indicators. The overall assessment carries moderate confidence, with neither side holding a clear advantage. The signal leans toward Genoa CFC avoiding defeat, but the expected balance of the contest means Parma Calcio remain firmly in contention, particularly if they can make effective use of home advantage.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, although the possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. That points to a game where periods of caution could alternate with more open phases, without a clear indication of sustained attacking dominance from either team. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1, reflecting a narrow range of outcomes rather than a decisive forecast. A closely contested draw or a slender Genoa CFC victory appear consistent with the available assessment.
What matters before kick-off
League standings heading into the fixture
Both Parma and Genoa entered their matchday five Serie A clash having earned just one point each from their opening four league matches of the season.
Genoa squad absences
Genoa defender Johan Vasquez missed the match due to suspension, while Lorenzo Venturino and Elias Havel were ruled out through injury.
Clean sheet streak in head-to-head encounters
Genoa kept clean sheets in all four of their previous matches against Parma in all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.