AS Roma — Inter Milano: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.7% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.1% / 32.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.4% / 58.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.3% / 76.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
AS Roma
1st place · 12 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.09.2026 away Torino 2:0
- 05.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Lecce 4:0
- 24.08.2026 home Fiorentina 4:0
- 24.05.2026 away Verona 2:0
Inter Milano
2nd place · 12 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.09.2026 home Udinese 5:3
- 05.09.2026 home Napoli 3:2
- 30.08.2026 away Cagliari 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Monza 4:1
- 23.05.2026 away Bologna 3:3
This season: AS Roma at home vs Inter Milano away
| Metric | AS Roma · at home | Inter Milano · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.90 | 3.91 |
| xG against per match | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 Inter Milano 5:2 AS Roma
- 18.10.2025 AS Roma 0:1 Inter Milano
- 27.04.2025 Inter Milano 0:1 AS Roma
- 20.10.2024 AS Roma 0:1 Inter Milano
- 10.02.2024 AS Roma 2:4 Inter Milano
- 29.10.2023 Inter Milano 1:0 AS Roma
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AS Roma and Inter Milano appear evenly matched ahead of their Serie A meeting on 19 September 2026. The available assessment gives the fixture a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clearly defined advantage. That points to a contest likely to be decided by small details rather than a dominant performance from either team.
The game is expected to be high-scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. This suggests an open match with attacking phases at both ends and limited room for either defence to remain untested. A draw is one plausible outcome, although a narrow victory for AS Roma or Inter Milano also fits the overall assessment. The central signal is therefore a competitive encounter in which both sides should have meaningful opportunities to score.
What matters before kick-off
Top-of-the-table Serie A clash
Heading into their matchday 5 Serie A encounter on 19 September 2026, both AS Roma and Inter Milan share top spot in the league table having won all four of their opening fixtures.
Inter Milan squad absences
Inter Milan travelled to Rome for the Serie A fixture without Hakan Calhanoglu, John Stones, and Djed Spence.
Inter Milan away run against AS Roma
Inter Milan have won their last five Serie A away matches against AS Roma at the Stadio Olimpico.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.