ACF Fiorentina — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.3% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 70.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.4% / 19.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
ACF Fiorentina
16th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 away Venezia 4:2
- 05.09.2026 home Torino 1:2
- 29.08.2026 home Frosinone 0:3
- 24.08.2026 away Roma 0:4
- 22.05.2026 home Atalanta 1:1
SSC Napoli
10th place · 6 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 05.09.2026 away Inter 2:3
- 30.08.2026 home Como 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Genoa 2:0
- 24.05.2026 home Udinese 1:0
This season: ACF Fiorentina at home vs SSC Napoli away
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina · at home | SSC Napoli · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.79 | 1.61 |
| xG against per match | 0.84 | 2.27 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.01.2026 SSC Napoli 2:1 ACF Fiorentina
- 13.09.2025 ACF Fiorentina 1:3 SSC Napoli
- 09.03.2025 SSC Napoli 2:1 ACF Fiorentina
- 04.01.2025 ACF Fiorentina 0:3 SSC Napoli
- 17.05.2024 ACF Fiorentina 2:2 SSC Napoli
- 08.10.2023 SSC Napoli 1:3 ACF Fiorentina
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
ACF Fiorentina face SSC Napoli in a Serie A contest that projects as relatively balanced, with a moderate lean toward the visitors. The available assessment points to a medium-scoring match, suggesting that neither side is expected to dominate the game completely. ACF Fiorentina should have opportunities to threaten, but SSC Napoli hold the slightly stronger overall position in the forecast.
Both teams are considered likely to score, which gives the match an open but measured profile rather than one built around defensive control. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1 and 1:2, while 2:1 also remains within the expected range, reflecting the narrow margin between the sides. Overall, the outlook supports SSC Napoli avoiding defeat, although the draw is a credible outcome and ACF Fiorentina retain a realistic chance of taking the points at home.
What matters before kick-off
Napoli squad availability news
SSC Napoli defender Leonardo Spinazzola misses out due to a minor leg muscle strain, while goalkeeper Alex Meret is also sidelined through injury.
Fiorentina recent results
ACF Fiorentina under Paolo Vanoli come into the match after back-to-back victories, beating Venezia 4-2 in Serie A before a 3-0 win over Pisa in the Coppa Italia.
Head-to-head record in Florence
According to official SSC Napoli pre-match statistics, ACF Fiorentina have beaten Napoli at home just once in their last 17 attempts, a 3-0 win in April 2018.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.