Juventus Turin — Atalanta BC: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.7% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 42.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.6% / 21.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
Juventus Turin
8th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Sassuolo 2:3
- 06.09.2026 home Milan 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Parma 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Frosinone 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Torino 2:2
Atalanta BC
11th place · 6 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Roma 1:2
- 31.08.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 23.08.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
- 22.05.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
This season: Juventus Turin at home vs Atalanta BC away
| Metric | Juventus Turin · at home | Atalanta BC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.64 | 0.70 |
| xG against per match | 0.17 | 2.96 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.50 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Atalanta BC 0:1 Juventus Turin
- 27.09.2025 Juventus Turin 1:1 Atalanta BC
- 09.03.2025 Juventus Turin 0:4 Atalanta BC
- 14.01.2025 Atalanta BC 1:1 Juventus Turin
- 10.03.2024 Juventus Turin 2:2 Atalanta BC
- 01.10.2023 Atalanta BC 0:0 Juventus Turin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Juventus Turin host Atalanta BC in Serie A on 20 September 2026, with the available assessment pointing to a slight edge for the home side. The confidence behind that view is low, however, so the matchup should be regarded as competitive rather than one-sided. The projected scoring level is medium, suggesting a game with enough attacking threat without a clear indication of an open shootout.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, which adds to the uncertainty around the final outcome. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, reflecting a narrow range between a draw and a controlled Juventus Turin victory. Atalanta BC remain sufficiently competitive to make the result difficult to call with conviction, while home advantage gives Juventus Turin the marginally stronger position in the pre-match evaluation.
What matters before kick-off
Injuries piling up for Juventus
Juventus goalkeeper Kamil Grabara suffered a serious ACL knee injury, joining Manuel Locatelli, Kenan Yildiz, Khephren Thuram, and Jeremie Boga on the sidelines.
Juventus bounce back in Europe
Juventus enter the match against Atalanta on the heels of a convincing 5-0 home victory over Dutch side NEC Nijmegen in the UEFA Europa League.
Absentees for Atalanta
Atalanta travelled to Turin without injured defenders Isak Hien and Odilon Kossounou, as well as winger Kamaldeen Sulemana.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.