AC Milan — US Lecce: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.1% |
| 12 | 86.1% | |
| X2 | 19.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.6% / 56.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.7% / 58.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 5.75 → now 6.00 |
| W2 | was 12.00 → now 13.00 |
Match preview
AC Milan come into this Serie A fixture with a clear analytical advantage over US Lecce. The assessment points to the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence supporting the home outcome. That gives AC Milan the more favourable position before kickoff, while US Lecce face the challenge of containing a side expected to carry the greater attacking threat.
The scoring outlook is also high, suggesting an open match with several opportunities across the game rather than a contest built entirely around defensive control. However, the expectation that both teams will score remains finely balanced, so US Lecce’s contribution in front of goal is difficult to assess with confidence. Overall, the analysis favours AC Milan, but the exact shape of the result remains open within a match that could produce multiple goals.
What matters before kick-off
Match coincides with San Siro's 100th anniversary
The Serie A Matchday 5 encounter between AC Milan and Lecce takes place during the 100th anniversary weekend of the San Siro stadium, which was built and opened in 1926.
AC Milan's long unbeaten run against Lecce
AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 16 Serie A matches against Lecce, recording 11 wins and 5 draws during that stretch.
Recent Serie A form for both sides
AC Milan enter the match following a 2-2 Serie A draw away against Lazio, while Lecce secured a 3-2 home victory over Monza in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.