Parma Calcio — Cagliari Calcio: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.0% |
| 12 | 70.4% | |
| X2 | 62.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Parma Calcio and Cagliari Calcio look evenly matched ahead of their Serie A meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, suggesting a contest likely to be decided by small details rather than a sustained difference in quality. Parma may have a slight benefit from playing at home, but Cagliari remain well placed to make the match competitive.
A medium-scoring game is the most balanced expectation, with 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0 among the plausible scorelines. Whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate, so the match could develop in several directions depending on the opening stages and the teams' approach. Overall, the outlook leans toward Parma Calcio avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a central possibility.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.