Parma Calcio — Cagliari Calcio: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.1% |
| 12 | 67.7% | |
| X2 | 63.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.0% / 52.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.8% / 60.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Sassuolo 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Como 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home Roma 2:3
- 03.05.2026 away Inter 0:2
- 25.04.2026 home Pisa 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Milan 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home Torino 2:1
- 09.05.2026 home Udinese 0:2
- 03.05.2026 away Bologna 0:0
- 27.04.2026 home Atalanta 3:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 27.02.2026 Parma Calcio 1:1 Cagliari Calcio
- 13.09.2025 Cagliari Calcio 2:0 Parma Calcio
- 09.02.2025 Cagliari Calcio 2:1 Parma Calcio
- 30.09.2024 Parma Calcio 2:3 Cagliari Calcio
- 22.04.2023 Parma Calcio 2:1 Cagliari Calcio
- 03.12.2022 Cagliari Calcio 1:1 Parma Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Parma Calcio and Cagliari Calcio meet in Serie A on 22 August 2026 in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives the hosts no more than a slight edge in the overall result market, while the moderate confidence level suggests that the balance between the sides should be treated cautiously rather than as a decisive forecast.
The match is expected to sit in a medium-scoring range, with 1:1 the leading projected score and 0:0 also among the plausible outcomes. A narrow 1:0 win for Parma Calcio is another possible scenario, but the data does not establish a clear separation between the teams. The prospect of both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, reinforcing the uncertainty around the attacking pattern. Overall, this points toward a competitive game where a draw remains a central possibility, with Parma Calcio holding only a limited home-field advantage over Cagliari Calcio.
What matters before kick-off
Parma won opening Coppa Italia fixture
Parma began their 2026–27 competitive campaign with a 2–0 victory over Catania in the Coppa Italia, with 17-year-old forward Simone Lontani scoring twice.
Cagliari advanced in Coppa Italia
Cagliari secured passage in the Coppa Italia by defeating Arezzo 1–0, thanks to a re-taken penalty scored by club captain Alessandro Deiola.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.