Parma Calcio — Cagliari Calcio: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.1% |
| 12 | 67.7% | |
| X2 | 63.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.0% / 52.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.8% / 60.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Parma Calcio and Cagliari Calcio meet in Serie A on 22 August 2026 in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives the hosts no more than a slight edge in the overall result market, while the moderate confidence level suggests that the balance between the sides should be treated cautiously rather than as a decisive forecast.
The match is expected to sit in a medium-scoring range, with 1:1 the leading projected score and 0:0 also among the plausible outcomes. A narrow 1:0 win for Parma Calcio is another possible scenario, but the data does not establish a clear separation between the teams. The prospect of both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, reinforcing the uncertainty around the attacking pattern. Overall, this points toward a competitive game where a draw remains a central possibility, with Parma Calcio holding only a limited home-field advantage over Cagliari Calcio.
What matters before kick-off
Parma won opening Coppa Italia fixture
Parma began their 2026–27 competitive campaign with a 2–0 victory over Catania in the Coppa Italia, with 17-year-old forward Simone Lontani scoring twice.
Cagliari advanced in Coppa Italia
Cagliari secured passage in the Coppa Italia by defeating Arezzo 1–0, thanks to a re-taken penalty scored by club captain Alessandro Deiola.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.