Udinese Calcio — Como 1907: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.9% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 79.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Udinese Calcio welcome Como 1907 in Serie A on 22 August 2026, with the available indicators pointing towards a contest in which the visitors hold a slight but credible edge. The assessment favours Como 1907 in the overall result, while also keeping the draw firmly in consideration. That suggests Udinese Calcio may remain competitive, but Como 1907 appear better placed to avoid defeat.
The scoring outlook is medium, rather than strongly open or particularly cautious. Both teams scoring is viewed as finely balanced, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 0-1 and 0-2, reflecting a range from a shared result to a narrow or more controlled Como 1907 victory. Overall, the main analytical signal is towards Como 1907 avoiding defeat, with Udinese Calcio needing a disciplined performance to turn the balance in their favour.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A season opener
Udinese and Como 1907 kick off their new Serie A campaign with a head-to-head match at the Bluenergy Stadium in Udine.
Suspension and injury news
Udinese defender Christian Kabasele is missing through suspension, while Como 1907 forward Jayden Addai is out injured.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.