Genoa CFC — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.8% |
| 12 | 69.6% | |
| X2 | 78.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Lecce 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Milan 1:2
- 10.05.2026 away Fiorentina 0:0
- 02.05.2026 away Atalanta 0:0
- 26.04.2026 home Como 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Udinese 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Pisa 3:0
- 11.05.2026 home Bologna 2:3
- 02.05.2026 away Como 0:0
- 24.04.2026 home Cremonese 4:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.02.2026 Genoa CFC 2:3 SSC Napoli
- 05.10.2025 SSC Napoli 2:1 Genoa CFC
- 11.05.2025 SSC Napoli 2:2 Genoa CFC
- 21.12.2024 Genoa CFC 1:2 SSC Napoli
- 17.02.2024 SSC Napoli 1:1 Genoa CFC
- 16.09.2023 Genoa CFC 2:2 SSC Napoli
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Genoa CFC and SSC Napoli meet in Serie A with the visitors holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The signal points toward SSC Napoli avoiding defeat, although the gap between the teams is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest. Genoa CFC should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the match controlled and prevent SSC Napoli from establishing sustained pressure.
The game is expected to produce a medium-scoring pattern rather than an open exchange from the outset. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, with that aspect viewed as evenly balanced. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 0:1 and 0:0, which reflects a match where defensive structure and the value of the opening goal could be important. Overall, the analysis gives SSC Napoli the clearer side of the matchup, but a draw remains a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Squad availability updates
Genoa host the match without the injured Lorenzo Venturino, Elias Havel, and Hamed Junior Traore. Napoli have traveled without Alessandro Buongiorno, Luca Marianucci, and Pasquale Mazzocchi.
Serie A season opener
Genoa and Napoli kick off their 2026-27 Serie A campaign in an opening-weekend match at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa.
Head-to-head record
Napoli are unbeaten in eight consecutive Serie A matches against Genoa, having won both home and away meetings between the two teams last season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.