Genoa CFC — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.8% |
| 12 | 69.6% | |
| X2 | 78.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Genoa CFC and SSC Napoli meet in Serie A with the visitors holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The signal points toward SSC Napoli avoiding defeat, although the gap between the teams is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest. Genoa CFC should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the match controlled and prevent SSC Napoli from establishing sustained pressure.
The game is expected to produce a medium-scoring pattern rather than an open exchange from the outset. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, with that aspect viewed as evenly balanced. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 0:1 and 0:0, which reflects a match where defensive structure and the value of the opening goal could be important. Overall, the analysis gives SSC Napoli the clearer side of the matchup, but a draw remains a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Squad availability updates
Genoa host the match without the injured Lorenzo Venturino, Elias Havel, and Hamed Junior Traore. Napoli have traveled without Alessandro Buongiorno, Luca Marianucci, and Pasquale Mazzocchi.
Serie A season opener
Genoa and Napoli kick off their 2026-27 Serie A campaign in an opening-weekend match at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa.
Head-to-head record
Napoli are unbeaten in eight consecutive Serie A matches against Genoa, having won both home and away meetings between the two teams last season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.