Genoa CFC — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.7% |
| 12 | 72.2% | |
| X2 | 81.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.6% / 53.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.9% / 29.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.6% / 56.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.9% / 90.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.7% / 96.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Genoa CFC face SSC Napoli in a contest where the visitors hold a slight but meaningful advantage. The assessment points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided occasion, with Napoli’s overall outlook stronger while Genoa remain capable of keeping the game level for long periods. The balance of the forecast also supports a medium-scoring encounter.
The scoring picture is less decisive: both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so it is difficult to identify a clear expectation on that specific aspect. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 0-1 and 0-2, reflecting a match that could remain close or gradually tilt toward SSC Napoli. Genoa CFC’s home setting adds to the uncertainty, but the stronger lean remains with Napoli, particularly in a game where small margins may determine the outcome.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.