Inter Milano — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.7% |
| 12 | 88.8% | |
| X2 | 16.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.1% / 74.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.05.2026 away Bologna 3:3
- 17.05.2026 home Verona 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Lazio 3:0
- 03.05.2026 home Parma 2:0
- 26.04.2026 away Torino 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.05.2026 home Empoli 2:2
- 01.05.2026 away Mantova 2:3
- 24.04.2026 home Modena 1:0
- 17.04.2026 away Sampdoria 3:0
- 11.04.2026 home Bari 2:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.03.2025 Inter Milano 3:2 AC Monza
- 15.09.2024 AC Monza 1:1 Inter Milano
- 13.01.2024 AC Monza 1:5 Inter Milano
- 19.08.2023 Inter Milano 2:0 AC Monza
- 15.04.2023 Inter Milano 0:1 AC Monza
- 07.01.2023 AC Monza 2:2 Inter Milano
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Inter Milano face AC Monza in Serie A with the hosts carrying a clear qualitative advantage. The available assessment points towards Inter Milano being clearly stronger, with high confidence behind the home-win signal. That suggests the match may be shaped by territorial control and sustained pressure from the home side, while AC Monza could be required to defend for long periods and look for opportunities when possession changes.
The scoring outlook is also considered high, although the clean-sheet signal indicates that AC Monza may struggle to turn their chances into a goal. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 3:0 and 1:0, which reflects a range from a controlled home victory to a more convincing success. Overall, the analysis favours Inter Milano to manage the match effectively and combine attacking threat with defensive protection.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A Season Opener
Reigning Italian champions Inter Milano open the new Serie A campaign with a matchday 1 fixture at home against AC Monza at the San Siro.
AC Monza's Top-Flight Return
AC Monza returned to Serie A after winning the Serie B play-offs and appointed Ivan Jurić as their new head coach.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.