Inter Milano — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.7% |
| 12 | 86.3% | |
| X2 | 20.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 35.0% / 65.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.8% / 22.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.6% / 67.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Inter Milano face AC Monza in Serie A with the hosts holding a clear advantage according to the available assessment. The confidence level is high, pointing to a substantial difference between the teams rather than a finely balanced contest. Inter Milano are expected to control much of the match, with their overall strength giving them the stronger platform both in possession and in creating chances.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, while the assessment also indicates that a clean sheet is likely. That combination suggests a match in which AC Monza may find it difficult to turn promising moments into goals, particularly if Inter Milano establish control early. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 1-0, and 3-0, all reflecting the same general pattern: a home win with AC Monza kept out. Inter Milano therefore enter as the clearly stronger side, although the final margin will depend on how efficiently they convert their opportunities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.