Inter Milano — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.7% |
| 12 | 88.8% | |
| X2 | 16.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.1% / 74.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Inter Milano face AC Monza in Serie A with the hosts carrying a clear qualitative advantage. The available assessment points towards Inter Milano being clearly stronger, with high confidence behind the home-win signal. That suggests the match may be shaped by territorial control and sustained pressure from the home side, while AC Monza could be required to defend for long periods and look for opportunities when possession changes.
The scoring outlook is also considered high, although the clean-sheet signal indicates that AC Monza may struggle to turn their chances into a goal. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 3:0 and 1:0, which reflects a range from a controlled home victory to a more convincing success. Overall, the analysis favours Inter Milano to manage the match effectively and combine attacking threat with defensive protection.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A Season Opener
Reigning Italian champions Inter Milano open the new Serie A campaign with a matchday 1 fixture at home against AC Monza at the San Siro.
AC Monza's Top-Flight Return
AC Monza returned to Serie A after winning the Serie B play-offs and appointed Ivan Jurić as their new head coach.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.