Venezia FC — US Lecce: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.1% |
| 12 | 72.0% | |
| X2 | 58.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.1% / 55.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Venezia FC and US Lecce meet in Serie A on 23 August 2026 in a fixture that looks closely balanced. Neither side has a clear overall advantage in the available assessment, giving the match an even tactical profile. Venezia FC will have home advantage, while US Lecce will aim to remain compact and make the most of their opportunities in transition.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring, with both teams finding the net viewed as an open possibility rather than a firm expectation. The most plausible scorelines point towards a narrow contest, with 1-1 standing alongside possible 1-0 and 0-1 outcomes. That range reflects how little separates the teams and suggests that small details, such as efficiency in the final third, could shape the result. The overall reading gives Venezia FC a slight degree of protection at home, but the match remains too evenly matched for a confident prediction.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.