Venezia FC — US Lecce: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.6% |
| 12 | 71.0% | |
| X2 | 50.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.2% / 9.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Venezia FC hold a slight but credible edge over US Lecce in this Serie A meeting. The overall outlook points towards a competitive contest rather than a one-sided game, with the home side better placed in the assessment but without a decisive separation between the teams. That makes the result difficult to call with certainty, while the home-or-draw scenario appears the more favourable reading.
The match is projected to produce a moderate amount of scoring, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. A draw is a realistic outcome, alongside a narrow Venezia FC win, which underlines the limited margin between the sides. US Lecce remain capable of keeping the game level, particularly if the contest develops cautiously, but Venezia FC have the stronger position in the pre-match evaluation.
What matters before kick-off
Venezia's Coppa Italia victory
In their first official match of the 2026–27 season, Venezia defeated Modena 3–2 in the Coppa Italia round of 64.
Venezia's record-breaking Serie B season
Last season in Serie B, Venezia set club record highs for points earned (82), goals scored (77), and matches won (24).
Venezia's winless Serie A record against Lecce
Venezia has never beaten Lecce in Serie A history, recording three draws and three defeats in six top-flight encounters.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.