Atalanta BC — Sassuolo Calcio: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.2% |
| 12 | 78.3% | |
| X2 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.6% / 45.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Atalanta BC enter this Serie A fixture with a clear qualitative advantage over Sassuolo Calcio, although the confidence in that assessment is moderate rather than absolute. The available outlook points toward a medium-scoring contest, with Atalanta BC more likely to control the match and create the stronger overall chances. Sassuolo Calcio should still be considered capable of making the game competitive, particularly if they can remain organised and limit the hosts’ attacking momentum.
The scoring picture is less decisive than the match result assessment. Whether both teams find the net is viewed as finely balanced, so Atalanta BC’s superiority does not automatically imply a high-scoring home win. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0 and 1-0, while 1-1 represents the main alternative if Sassuolo Calcio can convert one of their opportunities. Overall, the analysis favours Atalanta BC, with a measured rather than emphatic expectation of victory.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.