Atalanta BC — Sassuolo Calcio: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.8% |
| 12 | 79.1% | |
| X2 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.5% / 18.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.3% / 63.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.05.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Bologna 0:1
- 10.05.2026 away Milan 3:2
- 02.05.2026 home Genoa 0:0
- 27.04.2026 away Cagliari 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Parma 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Lecce 2:3
- 08.05.2026 away Torino 1:2
- 03.05.2026 home Milan 2:0
- 26.04.2026 away Fiorentina 0:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.03.2026 Sassuolo Calcio 2:1 Atalanta BC
- 09.11.2025 Atalanta BC 0:3 Sassuolo Calcio
- 17.02.2024 Atalanta BC 3:0 Sassuolo Calcio
- 20.08.2023 Sassuolo Calcio 0:2 Atalanta BC
- 04.02.2023 Sassuolo Calcio 1:0 Atalanta BC
- 15.10.2022 Atalanta BC 2:1 Sassuolo Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atalanta BC meet Sassuolo Calcio in Serie A with the hosts holding the clearer overall advantage. The assessment points to Atalanta BC as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that this is a measured preference rather than an overwhelming one. The match is expected to produce a medium amount of scoring, giving the hosts a platform to control the game while leaving room for Sassuolo Calcio to remain competitive.
The outlook for both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop in more than one direction. Atalanta BC have the stronger result signal, but Sassuolo Calcio are not excluded from finding a response if they can stay close during the main phases of the contest. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 1:1 and 2:1, reflecting a home edge alongside some uncertainty over the final margin.
What matters before kick-off
New head coaches for opening fixture
This opening matchday fixture of the Serie A season marks the official Serie A debut in the Atalanta dugout for head coach Maurizio Sarri and for Alberto Aquilani in the Sassuolo dugout.
Sassuolo's Coppa Italia result
Sassuolo entered the match following a 3-0 victory over Cesena in the Coppa Italia round of 64 on August 17, with goals scored by Luca Lipani, Vasilije Adzic, and Cristian Volpato.
Atalanta European fixture schedule
Atalanta played out a 0-0 draw against Hapoel Tel Aviv in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League playoff tie on August 20, right before their domestic season opener against Sassuolo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.