Bologna FC — Lazio Rome: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.0% |
| 12 | 71.2% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.5% / 55.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.3% / 76.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.3% / 89.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.9% / 96.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Bologna FC have a slight edge over Lazio Rome in this Serie A meeting, with the assessment pointing towards a competitive match rather than a clear gap between the teams. The home side’s advantage is supported with high confidence, although the balance of the contest still leaves room for Lazio Rome to remain involved throughout. Bologna FC should therefore be viewed as the more likely side to avoid defeat, while the visitors retain a realistic chance of taking something from the match.
The scoring outlook is moderate, suggesting a game that may be decided by fine margins rather than an open exchange of chances. The possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced, so neither outcome should be treated as decisive. A draw, a narrow Bologna FC victory, or a goalless contest all fit the overall profile, with the main signal favouring the hosts or a shared result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.