Bologna FC — Lazio Rome: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.3% |
| 12 | 69.5% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Bologna FC hold a slight edge over Lazio Rome in this Serie A meeting, with the assessment indicating a high level of confidence in the home side’s advantage. That does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the projected balance remains relatively tight and a draw is a realistic alternative. The most likely outcomes suggest that the match could be decided by a narrow margin.
The scoring outlook is medium, with neither an especially open nor an exceptionally defensive game indicated by the available data. Whether both teams score is considered evenly balanced, so there is no clear basis for expecting goals at both ends. Results such as 1-1, 0-0 and 1-0 underline the same pattern: Bologna FC have the stronger position, but Lazio Rome remain capable of keeping the match close.
What matters before kick-off
Head coaches' debut
The Serie A 2026-27 opening fixture marks the official touchline debuts for Domenico Tedesco at Bologna and Gennaro Gattuso at Lazio.
Lazio's Coppa Italia exit
Ahead of the Serie A opener, Lazio were eliminated from the Coppa Italia in the Round of 64 following a 2-0 home loss to Mantova.
Riccardo Orsolini's scoring record
Bologna winger Riccardo Orsolini has reached double figures for goals in four consecutive Serie A seasons.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.