Bologna FC — Lazio Rome: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.3% |
| 12 | 69.5% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.05.2026 home Inter 3:3
- 17.05.2026 away Atalanta 1:0
- 11.05.2026 away Napoli 3:2
- 03.05.2026 home Cagliari 0:0
- 25.04.2026 home Roma 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.05.2026 home Pisa 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Roma 0:2
- 09.05.2026 home Inter 0:3
- 04.05.2026 away Cremonese 2:1
- 27.04.2026 home Udinese 3:3
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 Bologna FC 0:2 Lazio Rome
- 07.12.2025 Lazio Rome 1:1 Bologna FC
- 16.03.2025 Bologna FC 5:0 Lazio Rome
- 24.11.2024 Lazio Rome 3:0 Bologna FC
- 18.02.2024 Lazio Rome 1:2 Bologna FC
- 03.11.2023 Bologna FC 1:0 Lazio Rome
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bologna FC hold a slight edge over Lazio Rome in this Serie A meeting, with the assessment indicating a high level of confidence in the home side’s advantage. That does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the projected balance remains relatively tight and a draw is a realistic alternative. The most likely outcomes suggest that the match could be decided by a narrow margin.
The scoring outlook is medium, with neither an especially open nor an exceptionally defensive game indicated by the available data. Whether both teams score is considered evenly balanced, so there is no clear basis for expecting goals at both ends. Results such as 1-1, 0-0 and 1-0 underline the same pattern: Bologna FC have the stronger position, but Lazio Rome remain capable of keeping the match close.
What matters before kick-off
Head coaches' debut
The Serie A 2026-27 opening fixture marks the official touchline debuts for Domenico Tedesco at Bologna and Gennaro Gattuso at Lazio.
Lazio's Coppa Italia exit
Ahead of the Serie A opener, Lazio were eliminated from the Coppa Italia in the Round of 64 following a 2-0 home loss to Mantova.
Riccardo Orsolini's scoring record
Bologna winger Riccardo Orsolini has reached double figures for goals in four consecutive Serie A seasons.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.