AS Roma — ACF Fiorentina: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
AS Roma hold a slight edge over ACF Fiorentina in this Serie A meeting, although the low confidence attached to that assessment points to a fairly open contest. The available signals suggest a medium-scoring match, with neither side clearly dominant enough to make the home advantage decisive. AS Roma may have the stronger overall outlook, but ACF Fiorentina remain well placed to make the game competitive.
Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, which reflects the uncertainty around how the match could develop. The most likely scorelines include a draw as well as narrow AS Roma victories, pointing towards a relatively balanced game rather than a one-sided performance. A cautious approach may be expected early on, with the result potentially decided by small differences in control, chance conversion, or defensive concentration.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A season opener
The Matchday 1 fixture of the 2026/27 Serie A season between AS Roma and ACF Fiorentina concludes the opening round at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.
Roma squad status
AS Roma midfielder Niccolò Pisilli became a doubt ahead of the opening match after sustaining a muscle strain.
Roma home dominance
AS Roma have won six of their last seven home matches across all competitions against Fiorentina.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.