AS Roma — ACF Fiorentina: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Verona 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Lazio 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Parma 3:2
- 04.05.2026 home Fiorentina 4:0
- 25.04.2026 away Bologna 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.05.2026 home Atalanta 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away Juventus 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Genoa 0:0
- 04.05.2026 away Roma 0:4
- 26.04.2026 home Sassuolo 0:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.05.2026 AS Roma 4:0 ACF Fiorentina
- 05.10.2025 ACF Fiorentina 1:2 AS Roma
- 04.05.2025 AS Roma 1:0 ACF Fiorentina
- 27.10.2024 ACF Fiorentina 5:1 AS Roma
- 10.03.2024 ACF Fiorentina 2:2 AS Roma
- 10.12.2023 AS Roma 1:1 ACF Fiorentina
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AS Roma hold a slight edge over ACF Fiorentina in this Serie A meeting, although the low confidence attached to that assessment points to a fairly open contest. The available signals suggest a medium-scoring match, with neither side clearly dominant enough to make the home advantage decisive. AS Roma may have the stronger overall outlook, but ACF Fiorentina remain well placed to make the game competitive.
Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, which reflects the uncertainty around how the match could develop. The most likely scorelines include a draw as well as narrow AS Roma victories, pointing towards a relatively balanced game rather than a one-sided performance. A cautious approach may be expected early on, with the result potentially decided by small differences in control, chance conversion, or defensive concentration.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A season opener
The Matchday 1 fixture of the 2026/27 Serie A season between AS Roma and ACF Fiorentina concludes the opening round at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.
Roma squad status
AS Roma midfielder Niccolò Pisilli became a doubt ahead of the opening match after sustaining a muscle strain.
Roma home dominance
AS Roma have won six of their last seven home matches across all competitions against Fiorentina.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.