AS Roma — ACF Fiorentina: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.0% |
| 12 | 77.2% | |
| X2 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.2% / 24.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
AS Roma enter this Serie A meeting with a moderate but clear advantage over ACF Fiorentina. The assessment points toward the hosts being stronger overall, although the edge is not so decisive that the match should be treated as one-sided. Roma’s main task will be to turn that superiority into control of the game, particularly by limiting Fiorentina’s opportunities to respond.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with plausible outcomes ranging from a narrow Roma victory to a more comfortable home win. A draw remains a realistic alternative, and the prospect of both teams scoring is finely balanced. Fiorentina therefore retain a meaningful route into the contest if they can stay organised and make the most of their attacking moments. Overall, the matchup favours AS Roma, but the moderate confidence level suggests a competitive game in which the decisive moments may be limited.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.