AC Monza — Sassuolo Calcio: Win probabilities, 18.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.0% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.0% / 18.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.1% / 64.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.3% / 81.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.3% / 91.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.09.2026
AC Monza
18th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Lecce 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Parma 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Udinese 2:3
- 22.08.2026 away Inter 1:4
- 08.05.2026 home Empoli 2:2
Sassuolo Calcio
9th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Juventus 3:2
- 06.09.2026 away Bologna 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Torino 2:1
- 23.08.2026 away Atalanta 1:2
- 24.05.2026 away Parma 0:1
This season: AC Monza at home vs Sassuolo Calcio away
| Metric | AC Monza · at home | Sassuolo Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.65 | 2.17 |
| xG against per match | 0.89 | 1.39 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 28.01.2024 AC Monza 1:0 Sassuolo Calcio
- 02.10.2023 Sassuolo Calcio 0:1 AC Monza
- 19.05.2023 Sassuolo Calcio 1:2 AC Monza
- 22.01.2023 AC Monza 1:1 Sassuolo Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AC Monza and Sassuolo Calcio appear evenly matched, with neither side holding a decisive advantage in the overall assessment. The moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest in which small details, game management and the balance between attacking ambition and defensive discipline could prove important. The available signal gives a slight edge to Sassuolo Calcio in avoiding defeat, but it does not suggest a clear separation between the teams.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That points toward an open but balanced encounter rather than a tightly controlled defensive game. A draw is a credible outcome, while a narrow result for either side also fits the wider assessment. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1, reflecting the uncertainty around which team will make better use of its opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Sassuolo's Victory Over Juventus
Sassuolo enter the fixture following a dramatic 3-2 home victory over Juventus in round four of Serie A, secured by a 94th-minute winner from Juventus loanee Vasilije Adzic.
Monza's Setback Against Lecce
In their previous league outing, Monza suffered a 3-2 away defeat to Lecce, leaving them with just one point from their opening four matches of the season.
Injury Concern for Ricardo Mangas
Monza defender Ricardo Mangas scored during the defeat to Lecce but was forced off later in the match due to an injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.