TSG Hoffenheim — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

TSG Hoffenheim have a slight edge heading into their UEFA Europa League meeting with Olympique Lyon, although the recent form of both sides suggests a competitive contest. The hosts have won two and lost three of their last five matches, scoring nine goals but conceding eleven. That record points to an attacking side capable of creating chances, yet one that has struggled to maintain defensive stability. Olympique Lyon arrive in better form, with three wins, one draw and one defeat across their last five games. Their ten goals scored and only four conceded indicate a more balanced recent performance, giving the visitors a credible chance of challenging the home side.

The head-to-head record adds another layer to the matchup. All three previous meetings have ended in draws, and both teams have scored in each encounter. The most recent meeting finished 2-2 in 2024, reinforcing the pattern of closely contested games between these sides. With TSG Hoffenheim showing attacking potential but defensive vulnerability, and Olympique Lyon demonstrating greater defensive resilience, the balance is finely poised. The hosts retain a narrow advantage, particularly with home conditions in their favour, but the visitors have enough recent consistency to make this a difficult test. An open match with goals at both ends looks plausible, while a draw remains a realistic outcome.