NK Celje — FC Salzburg: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

NK Celje face a challenging test against FC Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League, with the visitors holding a clear edge on the overall balance of recent form. NK Celje have recorded two wins and three losses in their last five matches, scoring 9 goals but conceding 10. Their results suggest an ability to contribute in attack, although defensive consistency remains a concern. Against an opponent that has shown greater stability in recent outings, the hosts may need to be particularly effective in converting their attacking opportunities.

FC Salzburg have won two of their last four matches, drawing one and losing one. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 7 during that period, indicating that their recent performances have not been entirely secure at the back. Nevertheless, their stronger overall results provide a reasonable basis for favouring the visitors. NK Celje have the potential to make the contest competitive, especially if they can exploit defensive weaknesses, but FC Salzburg appear better placed to control the key phases of the match. An open game with chances at both ends is a plausible scenario, and both teams have a credible route to scoring. FC Salzburg remain the more convincing side, although the margin between them may depend on how well each team manages defensive transitions.