Lillestroem SK — Real Sociedad San Sebastian: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 29.3% |
| 12 | 84.0% | |
| X2 | 86.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 6.25 → now 6.50 |
| X | was 4.75 → now 5.50 |
| W2 | was 1.45 → now 1.38 |
Match preview
Lillestroem SK face a demanding test against Real Sociedad San Sebastian in the UEFA Europa League, with the visitors holding a clear overall advantage. The assessment points towards Real Sociedad San Sebastian being better placed to control the match and create the more dangerous attacking opportunities. However, the level of confidence remains moderate, so the difference in strength should not be mistaken for a predictable outcome. Lillestroem SK will need to make effective use of their opportunities and remain organised defensively if they are to challenge their opponents over the course of the game.
The broader expectation is for an open contest with the potential for several goals. Real Sociedad San Sebastian have the stronger outlook in the result market, and a two-goal away victory or a narrower win in a competitive match are plausible scenarios. Lillestroem SK could still contribute to the scoring, although the balance between both teams finding the net remains uncertain rather than pointing clearly in either direction. A draw is another possible outcome, but it is not the leading reading of the matchup. Overall, Real Sociedad San Sebastian deserve the stronger consideration, while the prospect of an entertaining, relatively high-scoring encounter makes the attacking dimension an important part of the preview.
What matters before kick-off
Real Sociedad squad updates
Yangel Herrera misses out due to calf discomfort, while Beitia, Aramburu and Odriozola are also unavailable. Midfielder Pablo Marín is back after serving a suspension.
Recent domestic results
Lillestrøm SK enter the match on a four-game unbeaten run in all competitions following a 2-0 win over Sandefjord. Real Sociedad secured a 5-2 away victory against Málaga in La Liga on Sunday.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.