TSG Hoffenheim — Besiktas Istanbul: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
50.4%
Home win
TSG Hoffenheim
X
23.0%
Draw
W2
26.5%
Away win
Besiktas Istanbul
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1277.0%
Both teams to score
Yes68.4%
Totals 2.5
Over68.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.5% |
| 12 | 77.0% | |
| X2 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.4% / 31.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.4% / 71.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
Goal distribution model
TSG Hoffenheim × Besiktas Istanbul
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.8%
0:1
3.3%
0:2
3.1%
0:3
1.5%
0:4
0.6%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
5.0%
1:1
9.7%
1:2
6.5%
1:3
3.2%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
6.2%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.7%
2:3
3.3%
2:4
1.2%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
4.3%
3:1
6.3%
3:2
4.7%
3:3
2.3%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
2.2%
4:1
3.3%
4:2
2.4%
4:3
1.2%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.9%
5:1
1.4%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.7%
2:19.1%
2:26.7%
1:26.5%
3:16.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:3
- 12.09.2026 home Stuttgart 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Dortmund 2:3
- 29.08.2026 away FC Koln 2:3
- 16.05.2026 away M'gladbach 0:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Amedspor 2:3
- 11.09.2026 home Erzurumspor 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Fenerbahce 2:1
- 31.08.2026 home Corum 6:2
- 23.08.2026 away Alanyaspor 0:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.