AFC Bournemouth — SK Sturm Graz: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
83.2%
Home win
AFC Bournemouth
X
11.7%
Draw
W2
5.1%
Away win
SK Sturm Graz
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X94.9%
Both teams to score
No51.4%
Totals 2.5
Over72.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.9% |
| 12 | 88.3% | |
| X2 | 16.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.4% / 10.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.4% / 67.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
Goal distribution model
AFC Bournemouth × SK Sturm Graz
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.8%
0:1
1.2%
0:2
0.6%
0:3
0.1%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
6.6%
1:1
5.5%
1:2
1.8%
1:3
0.4%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
10.9%
2:1
7.6%
2:2
2.7%
2:3
0.6%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
11.1%
3:1
7.8%
3:2
2.7%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
8.5%
4:1
6.0%
4:2
2.1%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
5.2%
5:1
3.6%
5:2
1.3%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
3:011.1%
2:010.9%
4:08.5%
3:17.8%
2:17.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Liverpool 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Brentford 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Everton 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Man City 1:2
SK Sturm Graz
Last 4 matches · latest first
- 16.09.2026 home Stade Rennais FC 0:0
- 11.08.2026 home Fenerbahce Istanbul 0:1
- 05.08.2026 away Fenerbahce Istanbul 0:2
- 28.07.2026 away Heart of Midlothian FC 2:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 6.50 → now 7.00 |
| W2 | was 12.00 → now 15.00 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.