NEC Nijmegen — PFC Levski Sofia: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
53.8%
Home win
NEC Nijmegen
X
24.8%
Draw
W2
21.3%
Away win
PFC Levski Sofia
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.7%
Both teams to score
Yes58.8%
Totals 2.5
Over58.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.7% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 46.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.7% / 18.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Goal distribution model
NEC Nijmegen × PFC Levski Sofia
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.1%
0:1
4.3%
0:2
3.1%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
7.9%
1:1
11.6%
1:2
5.9%
1:3
2.2%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.7%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.5%
3:1
6.2%
3:2
3.5%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.6%
4:1
2.9%
4:2
1.7%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.0%
5:1
1.1%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.6%
2:19.8%
2:08.7%
1:07.9%
3:16.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Cambuur 0:3
- 08.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Feyenoord 1:3
- 29.08.2026 away Zwolle 3:1
PFC Levski Sofia
Last 4 matches · latest first
- 17.09.2026 home FC Salzburg 0:1
- 11.08.2026 away FC Kairat Almaty 1:0
- 04.08.2026 home FC Kairat Almaty 1:0
- 29.07.2026 away CS Universitatea Craiova 2:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.60 → now 3.75 |
| W2 | was 3.80 → now 4.33 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.