Jagiellonia Bialystok — FC Ararat-Armenia: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
69.7%
Home win
Jagiellonia Bialystok
X
18.8%
Draw
W2
11.5%
Away win
FC Ararat-Armenia
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X88.5%
Both teams to score
Yes52.6%
Totals 2.5
Over61.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.5% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 30.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.4% / 16.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Goal distribution model
Jagiellonia Bialystok × FC Ararat-Armenia
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.8%
0:1
2.9%
0:2
1.5%
0:3
0.4%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.0%
1:1
8.9%
1:2
3.5%
1:3
1.0%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.2%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
4.1%
2:3
1.2%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
8.7%
3:1
7.5%
3:2
3.2%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
5.1%
4:1
4.3%
4:2
1.9%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.4%
5:1
2.0%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:011.2%
2:19.6%
1:09.0%
1:18.9%
3:08.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Jagiellonia Bialystok
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 16.09.2026 away Olympiacos Piraeus 1:2
- 13.08.2026 away Glasgow Rangers 1:1
- 06.08.2026 home Glasgow Rangers 2:1
FC Ararat-Armenia
Last 4 matches · latest first
- 16.09.2026 home Sparta Prague 1:4
- 11.08.2026 away NK Celje 0:2
- 04.08.2026 home NK Celje 2:1
- 28.07.2026 away Shamrock Rovers 1:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: oddmind.app. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.50 → now 4.75 |
| W2 | was 7.00 → now 7.50 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.