Olympique Marseille — Olympiacos Piraeus: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
41.7%
Home win
Olympique Marseille
X
26.8%
Draw
W2
31.5%
Away win
Olympiacos Piraeus
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.2%
Both teams to score
Yes61.9%
Totals 2.5
Over58.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 58.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.9% / 18.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Goal distribution model
Olympique Marseille × Olympiacos Piraeus
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.3%
0:1
5.4%
0:2
4.7%
0:3
2.2%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
6.5%
1:1
12.4%
1:2
7.7%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.3%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
6.4%
2:1
9.0%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
2.9%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.5%
3:1
4.9%
3:2
3.4%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.4%
4:1
2.0%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.4%
2:19.0%
1:27.7%
1:06.5%
2:06.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Paris SG 1:2
- 11.09.2026 away Rennes 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Paris FC 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Monaco 0:2
- 21.08.2026 home Strasbourg 4:0
Olympiacos Piraeus
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 16.09.2026 home Jagiellonia Bialystok 2:1
- 11.08.2026 away NEC Nijmegen 1:2
- 04.08.2026 home NEC Nijmegen 0:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.10 → now 2.30 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.