Toulouse FC — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.5% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.9% / 42.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.4% / 21.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Toulouse FC and Olympique Lyon meet in Ligue 1 in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. Toulouse FC may have the benefit of playing at home, but Olympique Lyon remain well placed to challenge for control, making the balance between the teams difficult to separate.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That points towards an open but competitive encounter rather than a fixture dominated by one side. A draw is a plausible outcome, while a narrow victory for either Toulouse FC or Olympique Lyon also fits the overall picture. Scores such as 1:1, 2:1 or 1:2 reflect the close nature of the matchup, with small details likely to determine the final result.
What matters before kick-off
Lyon defensive absences
Lyon enter their Ligue 1 season opener without defenders Moussa Niakhaté, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Abner Vinicius, and Ruben Kluivert.
Lyon European schedule context
Lyon play their Ligue 1 opener positioned between two legs of their UEFA Champions League play-off tie against Fenerbahçe, following a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Türkiye.
Toulouse head coach change
Toulouse enter the new season under new Danish head coach Jens Berthel Askou, who replaced Carles Martínez Novell during the summer.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.