Toulouse FC — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.6% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Toulouse FC host Olympique Lyon in Ligue 1 on 22 August, with the available assessment giving Lyon a slight edge. The visitors appear better placed to control the match, although the gap is not large enough to rule out a competitive response from Toulouse. The suggested outcome signal also points toward protection against a home win, rather than a decisive expectation of an away victory.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring viewed as evenly balanced. That combination leaves several plausible scenarios, including a draw or a narrow Lyon success. A 1-1 result fits the uncertainty around the scoring pattern, while 1-2 and 0-1 reflect the visitors' stronger overall position. Toulouse FC's home advantage should keep the contest close, but Olympique Lyon hold the clearer edge in the pre-match assessment.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.