Toulouse FC — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.5% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.9% / 42.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.4% / 21.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Nantes 0:0
- 10.05.2026 home Lyon 2:1
- 03.05.2026 away Strasbourg 2:1
- 25.04.2026 home Monaco 2:2
- 17.04.2026 away Lens 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Lens 0:4
- 10.05.2026 away Toulouse 1:2
- 03.05.2026 home Rennes 4:2
- 25.04.2026 home Auxerre 3:2
- 19.04.2026 away Paris SG 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 Toulouse FC 2:1 Olympique Lyon
- 05.10.2025 Olympique Lyon 1:2 Toulouse FC
- 18.01.2025 Olympique Lyon 0:0 Toulouse FC
- 29.09.2024 Toulouse FC 1:2 Olympique Lyon
- 15.03.2024 Toulouse FC 2:3 Olympique Lyon
- 10.12.2023 Olympique Lyon 3:0 Toulouse FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Toulouse FC and Olympique Lyon meet in Ligue 1 in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. Toulouse FC may have the benefit of playing at home, but Olympique Lyon remain well placed to challenge for control, making the balance between the teams difficult to separate.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That points towards an open but competitive encounter rather than a fixture dominated by one side. A draw is a plausible outcome, while a narrow victory for either Toulouse FC or Olympique Lyon also fits the overall picture. Scores such as 1:1, 2:1 or 1:2 reflect the close nature of the matchup, with small details likely to determine the final result.
What matters before kick-off
Lyon defensive absences
Lyon enter their Ligue 1 season opener without defenders Moussa Niakhaté, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Abner Vinicius, and Ruben Kluivert.
Lyon European schedule context
Lyon play their Ligue 1 opener positioned between two legs of their UEFA Champions League play-off tie against Fenerbahçe, following a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Türkiye.
Toulouse head coach change
Toulouse enter the new season under new Danish head coach Jens Berthel Askou, who replaced Carles Martínez Novell during the summer.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.