OGC Nice — FC Lorient: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.1% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.7% / 23.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
OGC Nice host FC Lorient in Ligue 1, with the available assessment giving Nice a moderate and narrow advantage. The hosts appear slightly better placed in a matchup that is not expected to be dominated by either side, while Lorient remain close enough to make the contest competitive. The overall outlook points toward a medium-scoring game rather than an encounter defined by a large number of goals.
The possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced, which adds uncertainty to the exact outcome. A draw remains a credible scenario, while a narrow Nice victory also fits the assessment, particularly if the home side can make better use of its opportunities. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 2-1 to OGC Nice, and 1-0 to the hosts. Overall, the signal supports Nice avoiding defeat, but the moderate confidence indicates that FC Lorient should not be discounted.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.