OGC Nice — FC Lorient: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.5% |
| 12 | 69.5% | |
| X2 | 61.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Metz 0:0
- 10.05.2026 away Auxerre 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home Lens 1:1
- 26.04.2026 away Marseille 1:1
- 18.04.2026 away Lille 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Le Havre 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away Metz 4:0
- 02.05.2026 away Paris SG 2:2
- 26.04.2026 home Strasbourg 2:3
- 18.04.2026 home Marseille 2:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.02.2026 OGC Nice 3:3 FC Lorient
- 30.11.2025 FC Lorient 3:1 OGC Nice
- 19.04.2024 OGC Nice 3:0 FC Lorient
- 20.08.2023 FC Lorient 1:1 OGC Nice
- 19.03.2023 OGC Nice 1:1 FC Lorient
- 30.10.2022 FC Lorient 1:2 OGC Nice
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
OGC Nice host FC Lorient in Ligue 1, with the assessment pointing to a narrow advantage for the home side. The signal favors OGC Nice avoiding defeat, while the overall balance still leaves room for a draw. This is not a matchup where the visitors are rated without a chance, but the available indicators give OGC Nice the clearer platform, particularly through home advantage.
The game is expected to sit around a medium-scoring level rather than develop into an open contest with a large number of goals. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so the match could be decided by small margins or remain level for long periods. A controlled OGC Nice performance would fit the overall view, while FC Lorient can keep the contest competitive if they limit the hosts' opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Behind closed doors fixture
The 2026–27 Ligue 1 opening match against FC Lorient is scheduled to be played behind closed doors at OGC Nice's Allianz Riviera as part of a stadium ban.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.