Le Mans FC — Stade Brest 29: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.5% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 63.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.1% / 22.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.0% / 71.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.05.2026 away Bastia 2:0
- 02.05.2026 home Reims 1:1
- 25.04.2026 away Grenoble 1:1
- 17.04.2026 home Clermont 1:0
- 11.04.2026 away Boulogne 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Angers 1:1
- 13.05.2026 home Strasbourg 1:2
- 10.05.2026 away Paris SG 0:1
- 03.05.2026 away Paris FC 0:4
- 24.04.2026 home Lens 3:3
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Le Mans FC and Stade Brest 29 appear evenly matched ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting on 22 August 2026. The available assessment gives this view moderate confidence, suggesting that neither side holds a clear overall advantage. The market signal points toward protection for the home side, but the balance of the matchup remains close rather than decisive.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with plausible outcomes including a draw or a narrow victory for either team. Both teams scoring is described as an open possibility, so the match could develop into a competitive exchange without a clearly dominant attack. Le Mans FC may benefit from home advantage, while Stade Brest 29 remain close enough in the assessment to keep the result uncertain. A measured contest with limited separation between the teams is the most consistent reading of the available data.
What matters before kick-off
Le Mans' return to Ligue 1
The match against Brest marks Le Mans' first Ligue 1 fixture in 16 years following their second-place finish in Ligue 2 last season.
Brest under new management
Brest start their Ligue 1 campaign under new head coach Julien Lachuer with an away match at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.