Le Mans FC — Stade Brest 29: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.4% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.9% / 39.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.7% / 19.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.3% / 65.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Le Mans FC and Stade Brest 29 appear evenly matched ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with a moderate confidence level pointing toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided performance. The 1X signal suggests that Le Mans FC have a slight degree of protection through home advantage, although a draw remains a prominent possibility.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That points toward an open but balanced game in which neither defence is expected to dominate consistently. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, alongside narrower wins for either Le Mans FC or Stade Brest 29. Overall, the fixture should be approached as a closely contested encounter where small details may determine the outcome.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.