Racing Club De Lens — AJ Auxerre: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.7% |
| 12 | 78.5% | |
| X2 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.9% / 17.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Racing Club De Lens meet AJ Auxerre in Ligue 1 with the hosts holding the clearer overall edge. The available assessment points toward Racing Club De Lens as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that this advantage should be viewed with some caution rather than as a decisive expectation. AJ Auxerre remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can limit the hosts’ control and respond effectively in attacking phases.
The match is projected to have a high-scoring character, but the question of whether both teams will find the net remains finely balanced. That combination leaves several plausible pathways: Racing Club De Lens could win through greater attacking efficiency, while a draw is also consistent with the uncertainty around both teams scoring. AJ Auxerre will need to stay organised without becoming too passive, whereas Racing Club De Lens should look to impose their attacking initiative early. Overall, the hosts have the stronger profile, but the matchup does not exclude a close game.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.