Racing Club De Lens — AJ Auxerre: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.5% |
| 12 | 80.0% | |
| X2 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.3% / 17.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.4% / 90.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Racing Club De Lens have a clear edge over AJ Auxerre in this Ligue 1 meeting, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. The hosts are the stronger side on the available assessment, with the home win signal pointing towards Racing Club De Lens controlling more of the match. AJ Auxerre will still have opportunities to make the contest competitive, particularly if they can respond effectively when possession changes hands.
The scoring outlook points to an open game with several goals possible. The main scoreline range supports a Racing Club De Lens victory, with 2-0 and 2-1 the leading examples, while 1-1 remains a credible alternative. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that aspect should be treated as evenly balanced rather than a firm expectation. Overall, the hosts deserve preference, but AJ Auxerre remain capable of keeping the result uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Lens' recent Super Cup triumph
Lens enter the new Ligue 1 season on the back of winning their first-ever Trophée des Champions title after defeating Paris Saint-Germain 1-0.
Lens suspension news
Lens defender Kyllian Antonio misses the opening Ligue 1 match through suspension after receiving a red card in their previous cup fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.