Racing Club De Lens — AJ Auxerre: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.5% |
| 12 | 80.0% | |
| X2 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.3% / 17.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.4% / 90.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Lyon 4:0
- 13.05.2026 home Paris SG 0:2
- 08.05.2026 home Nantes 1:0
- 02.05.2026 away Nice 1:1
- 24.04.2026 away Brest 3:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Lille 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Nice 2:1
- 03.05.2026 home Angers 3:1
- 25.04.2026 away Lyon 2:3
- 19.04.2026 away Monaco 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.01.2026 Racing Club De Lens 1:0 AJ Auxerre
- 04.10.2025 AJ Auxerre 1:2 Racing Club De Lens
- 27.04.2025 Racing Club De Lens 0:4 AJ Auxerre
- 14.12.2024 AJ Auxerre 2:2 Racing Club De Lens
- 03.06.2023 AJ Auxerre 1:3 Racing Club De Lens
- 14.01.2023 Racing Club De Lens 1:0 AJ Auxerre
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Racing Club De Lens have a clear edge over AJ Auxerre in this Ligue 1 meeting, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. The hosts are the stronger side on the available assessment, with the home win signal pointing towards Racing Club De Lens controlling more of the match. AJ Auxerre will still have opportunities to make the contest competitive, particularly if they can respond effectively when possession changes hands.
The scoring outlook points to an open game with several goals possible. The main scoreline range supports a Racing Club De Lens victory, with 2-0 and 2-1 the leading examples, while 1-1 remains a credible alternative. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that aspect should be treated as evenly balanced rather than a firm expectation. Overall, the hosts deserve preference, but AJ Auxerre remain capable of keeping the result uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Lens' recent Super Cup triumph
Lens enter the new Ligue 1 season on the back of winning their first-ever Trophée des Champions title after defeating Paris Saint-Germain 1-0.
Lens suspension news
Lens defender Kyllian Antonio misses the opening Ligue 1 match through suspension after receiving a red card in their previous cup fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.