ESTAC Troyes — Paris FC: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.6% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 71.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.9% / 65.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
ESTAC Troyes face Paris FC in a Ligue 1 meeting that looks competitive, with a moderate lean towards the visitors. Paris FC hold a slight edge in the overall assessment, but the gap is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest. The X2 signal points towards Paris FC avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a realistic outcome.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. That combination suggests an open game in which neither side can afford to become passive after taking the lead. ESTAC Troyes should have opportunities to make the home advantage count, while Paris FC appear capable of creating enough danger to keep the result in their favour. The main scorelines considered are 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1, underlining the balance of the fixture and the narrow nature of the visitors' advantage.
What matters before kick-off
ESTAC Troyes sign Dermane Karim
ESTAC Troyes announced the signing of 22-year-old Togolese international midfielder Dermane Karim on a contract running until June 2029 ahead of their match against Paris FC.
ESTAC Troyes sign Hugo Picard on loan
ESTAC Troyes completed the signing of 23-year-old attacking midfielder Hugo Picard on a season-long loan with an option to buy from MLS side Columbus Crew.
ESTAC Troyes finish preseason undefeated
ESTAC Troyes completed their preseason campaign undefeated with four victories and two draws, concluding preparation with a 1-1 draw against Panetolikos FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.