ESTAC Troyes — Paris FC: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.1% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 65.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.4% / 20.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
ESTAC Troyes and Paris FC appear evenly matched ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, suggesting a contest likely to be decided by small moments rather than sustained dominance. Paris FC may have a slight edge in the overall protection of the result, but the difference is limited and ESTAC Troyes should remain competitive on home ground.
The match is expected to produce a moderate level of attacking activity, with both teams likely to find the net. That points toward an open but balanced encounter, where neither defence is expected to control the game completely. A draw is a credible outcome, although either side could take the points if it makes better use of its chances. The overall picture is one of cautious uncertainty, with a narrow margin separating ESTAC Troyes and Paris FC.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.