Le Havre AC — AS Monaco: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.5% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 76.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.4% / 41.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.3% / 66.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Lorient 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Marseille 0:1
- 03.05.2026 away Lille 1:1
- 26.04.2026 home Metz 4:4
- 18.04.2026 away Angers 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Strasbourg 4:5
- 10.05.2026 home Lille 0:1
- 02.05.2026 away Metz 2:1
- 25.04.2026 away Toulouse 2:2
- 19.04.2026 home Auxerre 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.01.2026 Le Havre AC 0:0 AS Monaco
- 16.08.2025 AS Monaco 3:1 Le Havre AC
- 26.04.2025 Le Havre AC 1:1 AS Monaco
- 22.09.2024 AS Monaco 3:1 Le Havre AC
- 04.02.2024 AS Monaco 1:1 Le Havre AC
- 11.11.2023 Le Havre AC 0:0 AS Monaco
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Le Havre AC face AS Monaco in a Ligue 1 meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge. The overall assessment points toward AS Monaco avoiding defeat, although the gap between the teams is not large enough to make this a one-sided contest. Le Havre AC should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the match balanced during the opening stages.
The scoring outlook is medium, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests a match with attacking moments at both ends rather than a purely cautious encounter. Le Havre AC have a realistic route to a positive result, but AS Monaco appear better placed to control the decisive phases and claim the stronger outcome. A draw remains a credible possibility, while a narrow AS Monaco win also fits the expected pattern.
What matters before kick-off
Monaco's congested schedule
AS Monaco open their Ligue 1 campaign away against Le Havre just three days after earning a 3-2 victory away to Polish side Górnik Zabrze in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League play-off tie.
Previous meeting at Stade Océane
In their previous league meeting at Stade Océane in January 2026, Le Havre AC held AS Monaco to a goalless 0-0 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.