Le Havre AC — AS Monaco: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.2% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 74.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Le Havre AC welcome AS Monaco in Ligue 1, with the visitors carrying a clear but not overwhelming advantage in the pre-match assessment. Monaco appear better placed to avoid defeat, although the balance does not point to a one-sided contest. Le Havre AC should still have opportunities to threaten, particularly if they can make effective use of their home setting and maintain pressure during attacking phases.
The broader expectation is for an open match with chances at both ends. Both teams are likely to score, while the overall scoring outlook favours a lively encounter rather than a cautious, low-event game. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 1-2 and 0-2, reflecting both the possibility of Le Havre AC holding Monaco to a draw and the visitors’ stronger position in the matchup. A narrow Monaco win is the preferred direction, but the draw remains a credible outcome.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.