Stade Rennais FC — Paris Saint-Germain: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 32.7% |
| 12 | 82.0% | |
| X2 | 85.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.6% / 33.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Marseille 1:3
- 10.05.2026 home Paris FC 2:1
- 03.05.2026 away Lyon 2:4
- 26.04.2026 home Nantes 2:1
- 19.04.2026 away Strasbourg 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Paris FC 1:2
- 13.05.2026 away Lens 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Brest 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Lorient 2:2
- 25.04.2026 away Angers 3:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.02.2026 Stade Rennais FC 3:1 Paris Saint-Germain
- 06.12.2025 Paris Saint-Germain 5:0 Stade Rennais FC
- 08.03.2025 Stade Rennais FC 1:4 Paris Saint-Germain
- 27.09.2024 Paris Saint-Germain 3:1 Stade Rennais FC
- 25.02.2024 Paris Saint-Germain 1:1 Stade Rennais FC
- 08.10.2023 Stade Rennais FC 1:3 Paris Saint-Germain
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Stade Rennais FC host Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1 on 23 August 2026, with the available assessment giving Paris Saint-Germain a clear but moderately confident advantage. The visitors are expected to carry the stronger attacking threat, while Stade Rennais FC should still have opportunities to trouble the Paris Saint-Germain defence.
The match profile points towards an open, high-scoring contest rather than a cautious encounter. Both teams are considered likely to score, which gives Stade Rennais FC a realistic route into the game even though Paris Saint-Germain remain the stronger side overall. The main projected outcomes are a 2-1 victory for Paris Saint-Germain, a 2-0 away win, or a 1-1 draw, reflecting a preference for the visitors without excluding a competitive response from the hosts.
What matters before kick-off
Match venue relocation
The Ligue 1 opening fixture between Paris Saint-Germain and Stade Rennais was relocated to Roazhon Park in Rennes after extreme heat severely damaged the pitch at the Parc des Princes.
Recent competitive results for Paris Saint-Germain
Prior to starting their Ligue 1 campaign, Paris Saint-Germain won the UEFA Super Cup by defeating Aston Villa 2-1 before suffering a 1-0 defeat against Lens in the Trophée des Champions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.