Paris Saint-Germain — Stade Rennais FC: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.4% |
| 12 | 81.0% | |
| X2 | 32.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Paris FC 1:2
- 13.05.2026 away Lens 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Brest 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Lorient 2:2
- 25.04.2026 away Angers 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Marseille 1:3
- 10.05.2026 home Paris FC 2:1
- 03.05.2026 away Lyon 2:4
- 26.04.2026 home Nantes 2:1
- 19.04.2026 away Strasbourg 3:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.02.2026 Stade Rennais FC 3:1 Paris Saint-Germain
- 06.12.2025 Paris Saint-Germain 5:0 Stade Rennais FC
- 08.03.2025 Stade Rennais FC 1:4 Paris Saint-Germain
- 27.09.2024 Paris Saint-Germain 3:1 Stade Rennais FC
- 25.02.2024 Paris Saint-Germain 1:1 Stade Rennais FC
- 08.10.2023 Stade Rennais FC 1:3 Paris Saint-Germain
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Paris Saint-Germain enter this Ligue 1 meeting as the clearly stronger side, with a moderate level of confidence behind that assessment. The home advantage adds weight to their position, and the available signals point toward an open match rather than a tightly controlled contest. Stade Rennais FC should still have opportunities to contribute, particularly if the game develops at a fast pace.
The scoring outlook is high, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination makes a narrow home victory plausible, although the possibility of a draw remains part of the match profile. The most representative scoreline scenarios are 2-1 and 2-0, while 1-1 also reflects the potential for Stade Rennais FC to resist Paris Saint-Germain and take advantage of their attacking chances. Overall, Paris Saint-Germain hold the stronger position, but the expected match pattern leaves room for an even contest across key phases.
What matters before kick-off
Venue switch due to pitch damage
Paris Saint-Germain's opening Ligue 1 fixture against Rennes was relocated to Rennes' Roazhon Park after the pitch at the Parc des Princes was severely damaged by extreme heat.
Paris Saint-Germain squad selection
Paris Saint-Germain manager Luis Enrique selected a 21-man squad traveling to Rennes for the opening Ligue 1 match of the season.
Paris Saint-Germain's recent competitive outings
Prior to starting their Ligue 1 campaign, Paris Saint-Germain won the UEFA Super Cup 2-1 against Aston Villa before losing 1-0 to Lens in the Trophée des Champions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.