Paris Saint-Germain — Stade Rennais FC: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.9% |
| 12 | 81.5% | |
| X2 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.3% / 39.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.4% / 71.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Paris Saint-Germain host Stade Rennais FC in Ligue 1 on 23 August 2026. The available assessment gives Paris Saint-Germain a clear overall strength advantage, although the moderate confidence indicates that the matchup is not without uncertainty. The hosts are therefore expected to control more of the game, particularly through their attacking quality and ability to create sustained pressure.
The scoring outlook points toward an open match, with a high-scoring pattern considered more likely than a tightly controlled contest. Stade Rennais FC are also assessed as likely to score, which could make this more competitive than the overall strength gap suggests. The most plausible scorelines include a narrow Paris Saint-Germain win, a more controlled home victory, or a draw if Rennais FC convert their opportunities efficiently. Overall, the balance favours Paris Saint-Germain, while the visitors retain enough attacking potential to influence the game.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.