Olympique Marseille — Strasbourg Alsace: Win probabilities, 21.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 78.8% | |
| X2 | 39.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.9% / 13.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Olympique Marseille come into this Ligue 1 meeting with a moderate but clear advantage over Strasbourg Alsace. The hosts are assessed as the stronger side, although the gap is not decisive enough to remove uncertainty. Marseille should look to impose the game through sustained pressure and a proactive approach, while Strasbourg will aim to remain competitive and exploit spaces when possession changes hands.
The overall outlook points towards an open match with several scoring opportunities. Both teams are considered likely to find the net, making this less suited to a purely controlled, low-tempo contest. Marseille have the stronger attacking expectation, but Strasbourg Alsace retain enough threat to keep the result in balance for long periods. A narrow home win is the leading scenario, with 2-1 the most representative scoreline, while 1-1 and 2-0 also reflect the range of plausible outcomes.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.