Olympique Marseille — Strasbourg Alsace: Win probabilities, 21.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.7% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 43.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 21.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Rennes 3:1
- 10.05.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
- 02.05.2026 away Nantes 0:3
- 26.04.2026 home Nice 1:1
- 18.04.2026 away Lorient 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Monaco 5:4
- 13.05.2026 away Brest 2:1
- 10.05.2026 away Angers 1:1
- 03.05.2026 home Toulouse 1:2
- 26.04.2026 away Lorient 3:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 Olympique Marseille 2:2 Strasbourg Alsace
- 26.09.2025 Strasbourg Alsace 1:2 Olympique Marseille
- 19.01.2025 Olympique Marseille 1:1 Strasbourg Alsace
- 29.09.2024 Strasbourg Alsace 1:0 Olympique Marseille
- 12.01.2024 Olympique Marseille 1:1 Strasbourg Alsace
- 25.11.2023 Strasbourg Alsace 1:1 Olympique Marseille
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Olympique Marseille have a moderate edge over Strasbourg Alsace in this Ligue 1 meeting, but the assessment points to a competitive contest rather than a clear imbalance. The hosts are favoured to make more of their opportunities, yet Strasbourg Alsace remain capable of creating enough danger to keep the match open.
The scoring outlook is relatively positive, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a high-scoring pattern more plausible than a tightly controlled defensive game, although the possible scorelines still include a draw as well as a narrow home win. Olympique Marseille should have the stronger overall platform, but Strasbourg Alsace may contribute to the attacking rhythm and prevent the hosts from managing the game comfortably. The main signal is therefore aligned with both teams scoring, while the result market gives Olympique Marseille only a measured advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Ligue 1 season opener
The clash between Olympique Marseille and Strasbourg Alsace opens the 2026/27 French Ligue 1 season at the Orange Vélodrome.
New head coaches for both teams
Both clubs enter the new campaign under new managerial leadership, with Bruno Genesio taking charge at Marseille and Hugo Oliveira appointed at Strasbourg.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.