Toulouse FC — Lille OSC: Win probabilities, 03.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.5% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 76.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.2% / 43.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.8% / 66.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.4% / 82.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.09.2026
Toulouse FC
16th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Brest 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Lyon 0:2
- 17.05.2026 away Nantes 0:0
- 10.05.2026 home Lyon 2:1
- 03.05.2026 away Strasbourg 2:1
Lille OSC
3rd place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Angers 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Auxerre 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away Monaco 1:0
- 03.05.2026 home Le Havre 1:1
This season: Toulouse FC at home vs Lille OSC away
| Metric | Toulouse FC · at home | Lille OSC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.76 | 1.24 |
| xG against per match | 0.70 | 1.99 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2026 Toulouse FC 0:4 Lille OSC
- 14.09.2025 Lille OSC 2:1 Toulouse FC
- 12.04.2025 Toulouse FC 1:2 Lille OSC
- 05.10.2024 Lille OSC 2:1 Toulouse FC
- 25.02.2024 Toulouse FC 3:1 Lille OSC
- 12.11.2023 Lille OSC 1:1 Toulouse FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Toulouse FC and Lille OSC meet in Ligue 1 with Lille OSC holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The visitors appear better placed to avoid defeat, although the balance is not so one-sided that Toulouse FC can be discounted. The match profile points towards a medium-scoring contest, with the most plausible outcomes including a draw or a narrow Lille OSC victory.
Toulouse FC should still have opportunities to influence the game, particularly if they can make effective use of home advantage and keep the contest level for long periods. Lille OSC, meanwhile, may look to impose enough control to turn their slight superiority into a decisive moment. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, making the attacking outlook fairly balanced rather than clearly favouring one side. Overall, Lille OSC have the clearer edge, but a close match with limited margin between the teams is the more appropriate expectation.
What matters before kick-off
Toulouse draw against Brest
In their previous Ligue 1 match, Toulouse FC played out a 2-2 draw with Stade Brestois, conceding a stoppage-time equalizer.
Lille draw with PSG
In their last Ligue 1 outing, Lille OSC drew 2-2 against Paris Saint-Germain after conceding twice during stoppage time.
Lille's head-to-head advantage
Lille OSC completed a league double over Toulouse FC last season, winning both fixtures by an aggregate score of 6-1.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.