Toulouse FC — Lille OSC: Win probabilities, 03.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.5% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 76.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.2% / 43.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.8% / 66.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.4% / 82.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Toulouse FC and Lille OSC meet in Ligue 1 with Lille OSC holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The visitors appear better placed to avoid defeat, although the balance is not so one-sided that Toulouse FC can be discounted. The match profile points towards a medium-scoring contest, with the most plausible outcomes including a draw or a narrow Lille OSC victory.
Toulouse FC should still have opportunities to influence the game, particularly if they can make effective use of home advantage and keep the contest level for long periods. Lille OSC, meanwhile, may look to impose enough control to turn their slight superiority into a decisive moment. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, making the attacking outlook fairly balanced rather than clearly favouring one side. Overall, Lille OSC have the clearer edge, but a close match with limited margin between the teams is the more appropriate expectation.
What matters before kick-off
Toulouse draw against Brest
In their previous Ligue 1 match, Toulouse FC played out a 2-2 draw with Stade Brestois, conceding a stoppage-time equalizer.
Lille draw with PSG
In their last Ligue 1 outing, Lille OSC drew 2-2 against Paris Saint-Germain after conceding twice during stoppage time.
Lille's head-to-head advantage
Lille OSC completed a league double over Toulouse FC last season, winning both fixtures by an aggregate score of 6-1.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.