Racing Club De Lens — FC Lorient: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.8% |
| 12 | 79.1% | |
| X2 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.5% / 44.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.2% / 16.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Racing Club De Lens
7th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Strasbourg 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Auxerre 5:2
- 17.05.2026 away Lyon 4:0
- 13.05.2026 home Paris SG 0:2
- 08.05.2026 home Nantes 1:0
FC Lorient
14th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Troyes 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Nice 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Le Havre 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away Metz 4:0
- 02.05.2026 away Paris SG 2:2
This season: Racing Club De Lens at home vs FC Lorient away
| Metric | Racing Club De Lens · at home | FC Lorient · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 4.42 | 1.27 |
| xG against per match | 1.85 | 1.05 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 FC Lorient 2:1 Racing Club De Lens
- 02.11.2025 Racing Club De Lens 3:0 FC Lorient
- 03.05.2024 Racing Club De Lens 2:0 FC Lorient
- 04.11.2023 FC Lorient 0:0 Racing Club De Lens
- 21.05.2023 FC Lorient 1:3 Racing Club De Lens
- 31.08.2022 Racing Club De Lens 5:2 FC Lorient
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Racing Club De Lens meet FC Lorient in Ligue 1 on 5 September 2026, with the available assessment giving the hosts a moderate but clear advantage. The signal points toward a home win, although the confidence level suggests this should be viewed as a measured lean rather than an assured outcome. Racing Club De Lens are rated as the stronger side, while FC Lorient face the task of staying competitive against a team with the more favourable overall outlook.
The match is also projected to have an open, high-scoring character. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so the main attacking expectation does not necessarily imply that each side will find the net. The listed score possibilities include 1:1, 2:0 and 2:1, reflecting a range from a closely contested draw to a controlled home victory. Overall, the assessment favours Racing Club De Lens, but FC Lorient remain capable of keeping the margin narrow and making the result competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Defensive injury updates for RC Lens
RC Lens defender Maik Nawrocki is sidelined with a severe knee injury and Saud Abdulhamid remains unavailable, though Jonathan Gradit is set to return to the squad.
Recent Ligue 1 results for both clubs
RC Lens enter the match following a 2-1 away defeat to Strasbourg after opening their campaign with a 5-2 win over Auxerre. FC Lorient suffered a 2-1 home loss to Troyes after a 0-0 draw with Nice.
FC Lorient bolster squad with late loan arrivals
FC Lorient added depth ahead of the Lens trip by completing loan deals for defender Nosa Obaretin from Napoli and winger Isak Jensen from AZ Alkmaar.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.