ESTAC Troyes — Strasbourg Alsace: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.2% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.6% / 66.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
ESTAC Troyes
7th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Lorient 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Paris FC 0:0
- 09.05.2026 away Grenoble 0:1
- 02.05.2026 home Laval 4:0
- 25.04.2026 away St Etienne 3:0
Strasbourg Alsace
12th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 21.08.2026 away Marseille 0:4
- 17.05.2026 home Monaco 5:4
- 13.05.2026 away Brest 2:1
- 10.05.2026 away Angers 1:1
This season: ESTAC Troyes at home vs Strasbourg Alsace away
| Metric | ESTAC Troyes · at home | Strasbourg Alsace · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| xG against per match | 1.80 | 1.86 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 21.05.2023 ESTAC Troyes 1:1 Strasbourg Alsace
- 02.01.2023 Strasbourg Alsace 2:3 ESTAC Troyes
- 17.04.2022 ESTAC Troyes 1:1 Strasbourg Alsace
- 22.08.2021 Strasbourg Alsace 1:1 ESTAC Troyes
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
ESTAC Troyes and Strasbourg Alsace meet in a Ligue 1 fixture that looks finely balanced overall. The assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with neither side holding a decisive advantage. Confidence in that reading is moderate, so the game may be shaped by small moments rather than a clear difference in quality.
A medium-scoring match is expected, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough contest for attacking phases to matter, while the balance between the sides keeps a draw firmly in consideration. Strasbourg Alsace have a slight edge in the market signal, particularly in the sense that avoiding defeat appears more likely than a clear home success, but ESTAC Troyes remain capable of making the match competitive. A close scoreline, potentially with both teams contributing, fits the overall profile.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form in Ligue 1
ESTAC Troyes collected four points from their opening two Ligue 1 games of the 2026–27 season after securing a 2-1 away victory over FC Lorient.
Troyes top-flight return
ESTAC Troyes returned to Ligue 1 for the 2026–27 campaign following a three-year absence from France's top flight.
Strasbourg's early season results
RC Strasbourg Alsace started their league campaign with a 4-0 loss to Olympique de Marseille before bouncing back with a 2-1 win over RC Lens.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.